Apple is preparing to reveal its newest phones, but some financial experts think the big event might actually be bad news for the company’s stock. Analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets are sounding the alarm just days before the highly anticipated Apple product showcase. The firm warns that the upcoming iPhone launch could act as a negative catalyst for shares, mainly due to potential pricing decisions and how those choices will affect consumer demand and profit margins.
The company faces a tough choice with phone price increases
KeyBanc points out that the tech giant has a difficult decision to make regarding costs. The firm expects a $150 price jump for the iPhone 18 Pro and a $200 increase for the larger iPhone 18 Pro Max. Apple can choose to raise prices across the board to protect its profit margins, but that move risks giving buyers sticker shock and hurting overall sales volume.
Alternatively, the company could raise prices only on select models. That path would invite closer scrutiny from investors worried about profit margins and hint at more price hikes down the road. KeyBanc models total production builds for the new lineup to hit around 80 million units through the end of the year and into early 2027. That is a noticeable drop from the roughly 91 million units produced during the same period a year ago.
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Historical trends show the stock usually drops around launch events
KeyBanc maintained an Underweight rating on the stock with a $250 price target. The firm also highlighted a historical pattern where the company’s shares tend to weaken around these product announcements. Over the past five years, the stock has averaged a minor decline on the day of the launch, followed by an even larger drop five trading days later.
We will see how investors react when the company takes the stage for the Surprise and Shine event this September 9. Even if the higher device prices help cover the lost volume, the company still has to prove to consumers that these new hardware features are worth the extra cash. If people decide to hold on to their current phones instead of upgrading to the latest models, those analyst warnings could easily become a reality.
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