“NPD data over the past thee years indicates a meaningful uptick in sales from May to June. Month/month growth has ranged from +44 percent to +72 percent,” Mr. Um said. “Assuming only a 40 percent month/month increase for June and using a range of correlation percentages, implies June quarter unit sales of 2.9-3.5 million units.”
Based on Mr. Um’s estimates, Apple will show a 29 percent year over year growth rate for Mac sales during the quarter.
Mr. Um is expecting Apple will report US$14.8 billion in revenue and $3.01 EPS for Q3, which is above the company’s guidance of $13-13.4 billion and $2.28-2.39 EPS. Apple will most likely offer conservative guidance yet again for its fourth fiscal quarter.
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“Looking ahead, we believe mgmt will again be conservative with the outlook, but expect continued ramp of the iPhone 4 and benefits from back-to-school spending to drive continued momentum,” he said.
Mr. Um is maintaining his “Buy” rating and $320 target price for Apple’s stock. Apple is currently trading in the pre-market at $249.95, up 1.32 (0.53%).
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