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January 11th, 2007
This is my twentieth year attending Macworld Expo. To put it another way, I have attended over thirty Macworld keynotes. As I try to place yesterday's keynote in the context of all the others I have seen, I'd have to say that this one was the...I am not sure the word I want to use here, but I'll go with...weirdest.
First things first. Steve Jobs' demo of the forthcoming iPhone was very impressive. Paraphrasing a quote I heard Oprah use the other day, its coolness is so bright that it makes my eyes hurt. I have no quibble with Steve's assertion that it is a ground-breaking device, one that redefines what a mobile phone can be. As Steve marched through the list of the iPhone's features, I kept thinking that the makers of other mobile phones must be getting very nervous. The wide screen touch screen, the built-in Mac OS X software, the Google maps, the full featured Web browser and email, and all the rest. "Impressive" may be an understatement. Oh, and by the way, even if it wasn't a phone, it would be the absolute best iPod that Apple has yet to produce. I assume you already know most of the iPhone's details by now, so I won't bore you by reiterating them here. Suffice it to say that whether you want a new video iPod or a new Internet-capable mobile phone, you want this device. Assuming you can afford it, get ready to buy it.
That said, I was still surprised that Steve spent almost the entire keynote extolling the virtues of the iPhone, often repeating his talking points multiple times, to the exclusion of almost everything else. In fact, it was only about five or ten minutes into the keynote, after showing a new "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" ad, that Steve announced "That's all I'll be saying about Macs today." What? I pulled my program guide out of my backpack and checked the cover. Yup. It said MACworld. I had not been mistaken. What kind of Macworld keynote doesn't talk about Macs? What Macworld keynote doesn't introduce any new Mac software or new hardware peripherals? What sort of Macworld keynote doesn't mention a single new product that starts shipping at the Expo (AppleTV, originally announced several months ago, doesn't ship until February; the iPhone is delayed until June)?
It's not as if Steve's only choice was to talk just about AppleTV (briefly) and iPhone. For starters, there was another new product announced at the Expo: a redesigned AirPort Extreme, featuring 802.11n capability. Clearly, it is designed to work with the 802.11n capable AppleTV. Steve could have at least made passing mention of the new device. But he did not.
Steve might also have included a brief update on the status of Mac OS X Leopard (first announced at the WWDC and scheduled for shipment by June). Nope. The word "Leopard" would not even appear in a transcript of the Keynote. How about touting the speed benefits of the new Core 2 Duo MacBooks and MacBook Pros (released only a couple of months ago)? Nada again.
Then there are the products that haven't been released yet but are almost certainly waiting in the wings. For the past several years, Apple has announced a new version of iLife at each Expo. It's not an accident that the year is actually part of the name of the product. iWork now seems to be following the same pattern. It was thus a more than reasonable expectation that iLife '07 and iWork '07 would make their debut yesterday. At the very least, based on the transition effects in Steve's presentation, it seemed that a new version of Keynote might already be on Steve's hard drive. But this expectation was not met. No '07 products were announced.
Apple quietly dropped the stand-alone iSight camera from the Apple Store last month. This led to the reports that a new line of Cinema Displays were in the works, ones that included built-in iSight cameras. Such displays would mean that a stand-alone iSight was no longer needed for any currently shipping Mac, thus explaining the demise of the product. It all makes sense. Still, no new displays were announced.
Finally, it would not have been completely wacko to presume that Apple might announce a significant upgrade of at least one Mac model (the rumor money was on either the Mac Pro or the iMac). But it was not to be.
Steve did not even have a "one more thing" to conclude the keynote. There was pretty much only the one thing, the iPhone.
I fully expect that we will see many of these products rolled out in the next month or two, either via quiet online announcements or perhaps via a special press event. Still, the point is that Steve chose not mention any of the recently-announced or soon-to-be-announed products at the keynote. Why? I see two related reasons.
First, Steve believes the iPhone to be such an important product for the future of Apple that he did not want to dilute the impact of its announcement by muddying the waters with news of other lesser products. At the very least, Steve was sending a message that he wanted to be heard above the din of the crowds at CES in Las Vegas.
The second reason is a bit more subtle. But you get a hint of it from the announcement, at the end of the keynote, that Apple is changing its name from Apple Computer Inc. to Apple Inc. You can get another hint by visiting the Apple booth on the Expo floor. Here you'll find a section of the booth devoted to AppleTV, a couple of small display of the iPhone, and a couple of rows of machines featuring mainly iPods, iTunes, iLife 06, iWork '06, and Aperture. Unless I missed it somewhere, there is no section devoted explicitly to the Macs themselves, such as a section featuring the Core 2 Duo lineup of laptops. A third hint is that all three newly announced products (AppleTV, AirPort Extreme, and iPhone) work with both with Macs and PCs.
The bottom line here is that Apple continues to distance itself from its image as a company that primarily makes computers, Instead, it wants to morph into a more general consumer electronics company. No, this doesn't mean Apple intends to abandon the Mac. I am confident that the Mac still has a prominent place in Apple's future. At the same time, I believe that Apple expects the Mac to be a smaller and smaller part of its overall revenue in the years ahead. Steve emphasized this in a graph that popped up near the end of the keynote, showing that the market for mobile phones is bigger than the markets for computers and MP3 players combined. The implication was that a successful iPhone could easily become Apple's most important product.
If this trend continues, within a couple of years, we may see Apple pressuring Macworld Expo to change its name to AppleWorld Expo.
Personally, I would have preferred a more traditional Mac-centric keynote. Macs remain the core of my interest in Apple. But Steve doesn't consult me before putting his keynote together.
Finally, returning briefly to the iPhone, many many questions about this device remain unanswered: Will you be able to add your own widgets to the phone, or otherwise modify the phone's software? How will the software be updated to fix bugs and add new features? What exactly is this new version of Mac OS X that has been designed to run on the iPhone? Can you print from the version of Safari included on the iPhone? When will there be a version of the widescreen iPod that does not include a phone (replacing the existing iPod with video). Will there be a version of the iPhone that does not include an iPod? And on it goes.
This Expo is turning out to be a bit like recent episodes of Lost, revealing some intriguing details of the big picture, but frustratingly leaving much of the picture still shrouded in mystery. But take heart. I fully expect that Apple's picture will clear up considerably before the year is over. As for Lost...that's another story.
Ted Landau is the founder of MacFixit, and the author of Mac OS X Help Line, Tiger Edition and other Mac help books.
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Observer Comments
Ted's views echo my own. I am first and foremost a Mac user and, while I was excited about the iPhone, I was left a little unsettled that perhaps future development of it as a product in its own right may be sidelined in favour of general products.
However, it is too early to call the shots on Apple's next moves. It is very likely that the iPhone focus was intended to maximise media exposure, which it did exceedingly well. Through the course of my working day, I watch media reports from around the world. The iPhone has stolen a lot of attention. Globally.
Thu Jan 11, 2007 7:12 am Subject: Prognostication
I can help you with a few questions:
Will you be able to add your own widgets to the phone, or otherwise modify the phone's software?
No.
How will the software be updated to fix bugs and add new features?
iTunes.
When will there be a version of the widescreen iPod that does not include a phone (replacing the existing iPod with video).
Fall. The question, however, is ’07 or ’08? Depends on whether this option is perceived as decreasing initial demand for the iPhone.
Will there be a version of the iPhone that does not include an iPod?
Probably not. It probably doesn’t cost that much more to add the iPod features to a phone.
although I would say that the new iPhone is more mac like than anything else out there on the market. To me, it would seem that the new iPhone is very close to being a mini tablet mac. All you need is a version of iLife(which it seems many component are already on the phone) and iWork to be on the phone and you could use it as a portable computer. I was thinking that this is the reason why no iLife or iWork package was offered. They are working on an iPhone version.
Neal
Thu Jan 11, 2007 8:25 am Subject: Mac or not - it's an Apple!
Unless speech recognition works seamlessly, the iPhone can't stand alone. It's part of a platform - eighter PC or Mac. For the windows folks it works like a good friend whispering every morning: "Hey, come to where the freedom is... !" So this little device is nothing else than another tool to make people switch to Macs (OS X). In my eyes Steves keynote was two hours on Macs.
Dropping 'computer' from Apples name can be misleading to Apple folks. Apple is changing its clothes. The turnaround is over and Steve doesn't want to come along any longer like the looser company from the mac/win-wars. But underneath the clothes Apple is still the computer company eating up important parts of the consumer electronics, the entertainment business and the telecom industry. The new name is a statement: Up from now Apple is going to play in different liga. IBM, Dell, Microsoft – these are the guys from the office automation side in the 20th century.
This said, I ask myself what kind of influence the iPhone is going to have on OS X? Did we see the new finder in the stevenote with widgets instead of databaselike list views and all this ancient stuff? Is the new finder core animated from its core? Is telephony a major feature built in OS X? Is OS X generally resolution independent? Was this the final curtain for 72 dpi on screen? Are we going to use different versions from OS X (ultra mobile, mobile, desktop, server) or only one core with different packages (print or not, drivers or not, server or not)? When do we see the first screen with external card and drivers wirelessly connected to an iPhone?
And last but not least: The name 'iPhone' is wrong. 'iPod' is right. The new iPod is the first ram-only-computer without conventional harddrive designed to be sold in millions. Intel and Samsung have to speed up the production of energy efficent multicore processors and memory chips with 32 and 64 gigabytes, and so on... .
And to the very last: Apple is working hard on speech recognition. Once they will have finished this, the computer is a small device you can talk with and point to with your fingers. And this device is not a computer – it's an Apple!
with buzzin55.
I have maintained for a long time that we need to pay more attention to Apple as a company with a vision. Steve has been described as a visionary; Apple has long been described as being an extension of Steve.
Go ahead, put the two together. Steve often, as on CNBC the other day, says that at Apple, they just like to make stuff they would like to have themselves. It isn't so simple, though.
Steve Jobs, and Apple, have a long term plan. He has dropped hints from time to time about their working on stuff that is 'just too unbelievable' I think he said last year once. He has spoken about the digital hub.
Long term watchers of Apple will recognize what I'm talking about. It's starting to come together, and this week was a large step in that direction.
At some time in the future, Apple will be the manufacturer of a system, not individual products, that will tie together all of the functions we now see as separate, but are really different aspects of communication:
phones, both land and mobile
computers and on line communication
entertainment, including content and how you watch it
lifestyle enablers, now seen in iLife and iWork
Apple wants to tie together all the different functions of communication that you now see as separate so that it all melds into a new, easier, more natural way of interfacing with your technology and the world around you.
You'll carry it with you, it'll follow you, learn to know you, and anticipate your needs and wants so you can concentrate on your chosen lifestyle, not tending with accomplishing separate, disparate functions. In other words, your technology will serve YOU, not the other way around, like it is now.
That, I think, is the Apple dream. With this week's announcements, it is getting closer than ever.
rwahrens,
Excellent comment. Fully agree. By the end of his keynote Steve Jobs cited 'I try to skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is now'
He is a man with an outstanding talent to envision 'where the computer is going to be', and has once and again shown the courage to throtle full speed in that direction, while others try to make the same stuff everybody else does.
Apple came out with color, Visicalc, then the GUI and the Mac. Steve has been always ahead of his time. Shortly after his return to Apple he told about his vision of the computer as the 'digital hub'.
IMHO Steve Jobs' heart is still with his first love back in the '70s, that is, with computers, but he has long seen their future role, and planned accordingly. And he's such a strategy genius too. He has taken the right steps in the right time and direction.
We will continue to see Apple's superior computers. And I expect its strategy to beat Microsof where it hurts: in the OS battlefield. The first milestone will be MS falling under the 90% market share mark, and that will have happened by MacWorld 2009.
Well, I could be wrong.
It could be AppleWorld 2009.
Yes, rwahrens, we share the same view. But it was you, who made an extremely important point: ... Apple is the extension of Steve. It's not important wether it is true or not: The world and all employees at Apple think so.
For the third time in his career Jobs changes the name of a game. A lot of competitors and business people will have to pay for this. And guess what: This makes Steve a moving target now. It is easy to stop the innovation machine of Apple Inc. – eliminate Steve from the board! (A job done by a federal prosecutor on his way to the hall of fame with a secret bank account in Switzerland?)
This is the main reason why Apple and Steve must change their attitude towards core questions of the business. They have to stick to laws and rules more accurate than others. No more option scandals and apologies please! And most of all: Apples PR should show the audience that Apple Inc. is more than the well known Steve Inc.
I think the AppleWorld appellation is correct. It is the direction they're moving.
I don't think, like some in the Mac World do, that Micro$oft is dying. But it will change. What Apple is doing will change the computer industry - hell, it'll change the computer itself! A large monopolistic behemoth like Micro$oft will never respond fast enough to dominate a new paradigm such as Apple is building. Like Apple in the 90's, the market will change under their feet, and to survive, you'll see M$ split itself off into different corporations to serve different markets, and in the end, they'll be relegated to a niche market - the Enterprise.
Why? More and more, you hear people talk about the industry going back to dumb terminals, or a new version of that. I think that's the only thing that'll save M$ in the security field.
While the rest of us move into the main part of the 21st century, those that refuse to see the sun rise will get left behind!
Thu Jan 11, 2007 3:59 pm Subject: gotta be careful
One never knows what the Feds are going to do.
I don't believe that your scenario regarding Swiss bank accounts will happen. I work for the Feds, and seeing that is really rare. It happens, but not as much as Hollywood would have you believe.
That said, it could go either way. On one hand, a LOT of CEOs are in the same boat as Steve, and have had absolutely NO attention or consequences occur.
On the other hand, the SEC could decide to make an example.
The key here is that the SEC, like most Feds, usually go after the low hanging fruit; the liars, the dishonest, the ones that don't cooperate, the ones it's easy to prove a serious felony.
Apple has, at least on the surface, cooperated. They made the first announcement, they caught the error, they investigated (twice!), and they are supposedly cooperating now with the SEC official investigation. Assuming that is accurate, and such cooperation continues and the SEC doesn't find some smoking gun swept under a rug somewhere in Cupertino, well, I'd guess it'll blow over.
If that's wrong, then we're in for some interesting times (as in that old Chinese curse)!!
Oh, and don't believe what some idiots out here will try to make you believe. Not the SEC, nor anybody else in the Federal Government, has the right to remove Steve as CEO of Apple. Only the Board of Directors can do that! If they wanted him to run Apple from a jail cell in Kansas, they could let him do it.
I agree that saying Micro$oft is dying is a bit strong (hey, my keycaps a-g-r-e are starting to wear out). A split, yes. Like the Roman Empire surviving for a few centuries, M$ will be slowly bleeding for some time.
This war is like chess. First, a good position has to be gained, and the enemy's mobility has to be checked. Cutting the supply lines is good too, like MacArthur did in Inchon.
The iPhone is not only a ground-breaking product. It's also a brilliant strategy move. Same as with the iPod, it'll start penetrating the cell phone market with new models. But, most important, it'll start penetrating the minds of the Windows crowd.
'Your life in your pocket' will have millions of people sympathize with baby-OSX wondering at how good it is. Good Safary promotion too. Halo (Rev.2) will bring new converts by the millions to the Mac fold.
I don't think SJ hates money. But I think he really is after Micro$oft. Defeating Windows will make his big day. And it's coming a little closer.
Thu Jan 11, 2007 8:34 pm Subject: Multi Touch will be everywhere...
Nice article, nice thread.
Besides the occasional bouts of shaking my head at this new device (this is a PHONE!) with my prehistoric and well-hated RAZR sitting next to me, the idea that I couldn't shake might relate to the multi_touch approach. Every trackpad is now obsolete. Apple drops "computer" and OWC releases what could arguably be the first piece of Mac-based hardware Apple had nothing to do with. Perhaps it is a new era, with competition for the hardware end of things being led, rather than controlled by Apple? I never really got a sense that Power Computing et al were doing damage to Apple.
Anyway, I also agree this is just the beginning. Add an iSight and a few more traditional cel-based things like voice commands and walkie talkie functions, along with the ability to print and perhaps a cradle/speakerphone, and you have a full blown Star Trek communicator and a revolutionary device that makes the iPod look rather meager.
I just gobbled up 2 hours of keynote and am hungry for more...
Quoteanovelli wrote:
Nice article, nice thread.
Besides the occasional bouts of shaking my head at this new device (this is a PHONE!)
This statement reminds me of the consensus on the announcement of the iPod back in October of 2001: "It's only an MP3 player." We all know how short-sighted that viewpoint was. This is much MORE than just a phone. It's the future of the company and the industry as a whole. Just wait and see, you'll be stunned at where it's going to go.
Fri Jan 12, 2007 6:17 pm Subject:
Why does everybody assume that, since Apple changed their name to Apple Inc., the Macintosh computer is suddenly a thing of the past? The name change reflects their expansion as a company. At no time did they say that they would abandon the personal computer. Just like General Motors makes more than just motors, Apple makes more than just computers.
I do not think Apple is getting OUT of the hardware business, nor am I sure there is necessarily a lot of significance in OWC releasing the ModBook. I just wonder if some other hardware stuff is on the horizon from different sources. It's probably as useless to discuss as the predictions before this show were.
Overall I could hardly disagree more about Apple being a sellout or anything else here. They just released a device that represents a quantum leap forward on many, but hardly all fronts. It has features and technology that is applicable back to desktop and laptops, which will in turn move those further beyond anything any hardware manufacturer currently makes. And when the feature set expands, there won't even be a comparison with CE machines or any other smartphone.
I'm very excited about the possibilities, and look forward to better and better stuff soon.
P.S. Anyone using CrossMac?
Sun Jan 14, 2007 12:08 am Subject: Cover Flow & VisiCalc
QuoteGuest wrote:
IYou only get cover art with Cover Flow for albums on iTunes (right?).
Cover Flow works with the chosen album art you have associated with a song, video, etc., regardless of the source. Some of my albums are not on the iTunes Store, so I've either gotten cover art from another source or scanned the CD info/cover sheet and added those to the songs & videos on iTunes. In some cases, I made my own.
Quoteroddor wrote:
rwahrens,
Apple came out with color, Visicalc, then the GUI and the Mac. Steve has been always ahead of his time.
Apple didn't "come out with" Visicalc. VisiCalc was invented by Dan Bricklin, with help from Bob Frankston. Apple didn't develop or own it.
Sun Jan 14, 2007 12:25 am Subject: Apple TV, disks, recording
QuoteGuest wrote:
AppleTV is like a eunuch without a drive or recording capability.
Perhaps you should read the specs for the Apple TV. It has a 40 GB hard drive. As for recording, why? There are lots of Digital Video recorders available. I have a Toshiba DVD Recorder with a hard drive.
If you want to use a Mac, get a Mac Mini & one of Elgato's or Miglia's products, for example. Add a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse and you have 1) a Mac in your living room; 2) a DVD player; 3) DV recorder; 4) email, web, etc., on your widescreen TV; and so on. The Apple TV has a limited purpose. There is no Mac available that has component or HDMI output. (You can get DVI-HDMI cables, but you'll have to also use analog audio or TOSLINK optical audio cables.)
Quoteroddor wrote:
rwahrens,
Apple came out with color, Visicalc, then the GUI and the Mac. Steve has been always ahead of his time.
Apple didn't "come out with" Visicalc. VisiCalc was invented by Dan Bricklin, with help from Bob Frankston. Apple didn't develop or own it.[/quote]
English is not my first language so I may have made a mistake here if 'coming out with something' is necessarily associated with 'developing' or 'creating'. I'm using the expression in the same way that I would say 'Apple came out with USB' because it took the lead and pioneered this standard. Likewise, Apple pioneered Visicalc because of this visionary talent of Mr. Jobs.

