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Cringely: AT&T's Shot Across Apple's Bow
by , 3:50 PM EST, November 30th, 2007
AT&T's CEO Randall Stephenson, on Thursday, made an iPhone 3G announcement that preempted Steve Jobs, and it stands to lose perhaps a billion dollars in Christmas revenue for Apple, according to Robert X. Cringely on Friday. Mr. Stephenson did it to send Mr. Jobs a message, Mr. Cringely hypothesized.
The announcement came when Mr. Stephenson was in Santa Clara on Thursday, and appears to be a shot across Apple's bow, perhaps based on an internal dispute, and was intended to deliver the message that AT&T doesn't need Apple all that badly.
Apple customers who now decide to wait for the 3G iPhone could cause Apple to lose perhaps one million customers this Christmas.
Mr. Cringely hypothesized that the friction came from Apple's possible partnership with Google in the upcoming bidding for the 700 MHz spectrum space. "AT&T thought its five-year 'exclusive' iPhone agreement with Apple would have precluded such a bid, but that just shows how poorly Randall Stephenson understood Steve Jobs. Steve always hurts his friends to see how much they really love him, so AT&T probably should have expected this kind of corporate body blow," Mr. Cringely wrote.
The PBS author went on to speculate that Apple would end up using the 700 MHz space for data, then VOIP, in direct competition with AT&T -- although, he admitted that Apple hasn't publicly made such an announcement. Even so, Mr. Cringely is confident that Mr. Stephenson's announcement is a symptom of some emerging friction between the two companies or a preemptive warning, and the announcement on Thursday by Mr. Stephenson was a billion dollar piece of Christmas coal in Mr. Job's stocking.
Observer Comments
Fri Nov 30, 2007 5:13 pm Subject: Useless Speculation
I find Cringely (the PBS Cringely, that is) entertaining and sometimes informative. But on this one, I think he is out in the night. Stephenson’s comment isn’t new information. When Jobs introduced the iPhone earlier in the year he said that 3G iPhone would have to wait until next year after Apple worked out power usage / battery consumption issues.
I suspect that Cringely’s personal feelings about Steve Jobs, which might be well founded, clouded his judgment in interpreting Stephenson’s comment. Cringely admits that he has no inside information to back up his conclusions. In other words, his conclusions are baseless.
Fri Nov 30, 2007 5:23 pm Subject: Crossing the T
Okay so they have fired a round across the bow of the battleship iPhone. So now what happens? Will Task Force Apple cross the T of AT&T and not brick any unlocked iPhone when updates are released? Will the next update let the iPhone work on AT&T and Google?
Does the contract with AT&T only apply to the current model of the iPhone, I think that I read that somewhere. Could another provider be looking at the success of the iPhone and be going "hmmmm", how can we get some of the action
Fri Nov 30, 2007 6:18 pm Subject: Cringely's Conclusions
Fri Nov 30, 2007 6:50 pm Subject: I'd have to disagree
Why should they be more respected than anyone else's? Everybody has their waterloo... even an experienced opinion may have no merit.
Not that I'm saying that they have to be disrespected as such, but I'd have to argue against a blanket valuation given to 'experience' in the case of opinion.
Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:36 am Subject: I call them NAY-T-T
I'm really looking forward to the day that iPhones will work (without using a workaround) on other phone services.
I'll not be giving any funds to ATT in this lifetime.
And likely not the next few as well.
Cheers,
Jerry
http://boskolives.wordpress.com/
Jobs actually didn't give a timeframe for 3G to be added. He did, however, make it seem like it could be a while for battery technology to catch up. So, Stephenson's information is new in the respect that he gives a time frame for when Apple will release the technology.
For what it is worth, I doubt Stephenson had any ulterior motive for releasing the information. He probably was showing off to the crowd while at the same time thinking the information wouldn't be that widely decimated.
I personally do not get the whole 3G thing. First, it is cool the iPhone can search the Internet. However, who really sits around surfing the Internet for pleasure on the iPhone? The screen simply is too small for it to be enjoyable. I will take my laptop over my phone any day. Instead, it is just a tool to be used when needed, and maybe occasionally to show off to friends. Accordingly, I suspect most people do not use the capability enough to make speed a major issue. Second, the iPhone's speed on the Edge network is fine for reading email and occasional Internet usage (e.g. to get directions using Google). Third, in most places there are Wi-Fi networks negating the need for 3G (at least around me). Fourth, AT&T recently added the ability to iPhone service plans to exclude the data part of the plans so users do not have to pay for AT&T Edge at all (e.g. instead of paying $59 a month, you pay $39). So, there must be enough people who only are interested in the iPhone's Wi-Fi capabilities. I fall into that category.
Finally, I agree that Cringley's personal feeling towards Jobs often clouds his judgement. If I recall his dislike for Jobs stems from Jobs agreeing to do a joint Interview with Gates and Jobs if Cringley would get Gates to agree. When Cringley got Gates to agree, Jobs changed his mind saying that due to the SCC investigation he didn't want to give personal interviews at the time. Cringley somehow attributed Jobs change of mind to just being a jerk and snubbing Gates. However, it is fair to point out that months later (after the SCC thing cleared up) Jobs did appear with Gates for an interview with Mossberg. Cringley should get over that already.
QuoteBlack_Dog wrote:
I find Cringely (the PBS Cringely, that is) entertaining and sometimes informative. But on this one, I think he is out in the night. Stephenson’s comment isn’t new information. When Jobs introduced the iPhone earlier in the year he said that 3G iPhone would have to wait until next year after Apple worked out power usage / battery consumption issues.
I suspect that Cringely’s personal feelings about Steve Jobs, which might be well founded, clouded his judgment in interpreting Stephenson’s comment. Cringely admits that he has no inside information to back up his conclusions. In other words, his conclusions are baseless.
Sat Dec 01, 2007 4:23 pm Subject: Re: I call them NAY-T-T
Quotemaclover wrote:
I'm really looking forward to the day that iPhones will work (without using a workaround) on other phone services.
I'll not be giving any funds to ATT in this lifetime.
And likely not the next few as well.
Cheers,
Jerry
http://boskolives.wordpress.com/
I hope that you like T-Mobile, then. Other than a few smaller regional carriers. The iPhone is a GSM phone. Other than a few small regional carriers, ATT & T-Mobile are the only GSM networks in the US. Sprint and Verizon use CDMA. It's unlikely that Apple will make a CDMA phone, as most of the world uses GSM.
What is your problem with ATT?
QuoteTerrin wrote:
Finally, I agree that Cringley's personal feeling towards Jobs often clouds his judgement. If I recall his dislike for Jobs stems from Jobs agreeing to do a joint Interview with Gates and Jobs if Cringley would get Gates to agree. When Cringley got Gates to agree, Jobs changed his mind saying that due to the SCC investigation he didn't want to give personal interviews at the time. Cringley somehow attributed Jobs change of mind to just being a jerk and snubbing Gates. However, it is fair to point out that months later (after the SCC thing cleared up) Jobs did appear with Gates for an interview with Mossberg. Cringley should get over that already.
I believe this Robert X. Cringely (nee Mark Stephens) claimed in one of his documentaries to have worked for Apple at one point in time. I don’t think that Mark Stephens is anti-Apple. But he has previously written that he can never forgive Steve Jobs for how badly Jobs treated some of his (Stephens’) close friends who used to worked for Apple.
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