AAPL Q3 2012 Earnings Results Thread

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 07:34 PM #46

    That’s not how Apple does things.  Developers needed to know about this anyway.  China is a massive opportunity for them, too.

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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 07:34 PM #47

    Gregg Thurman - 24 July 2012 10:16 PM
    wildguess - 24 July 2012 09:06 PM

    I expect analysts will come out tomorrow and lower estimates. AAPL might be dead money for a couple months.

    AAPL is dead money until after October earnings.  Even then, with an earnings beat and positive guidance, the market will take a wait and see, prove it to me, attitude.  We may not see ISM/PPS growth until after April earnings.

    I think AAPL will be far more susceptible to macro events in the future.

    April earnings?
    Apples biggest bang is going to happen in 1st q.. And jan results will reflect that..

    I expect 50+ ttm eps by jan… 720 to 750 pps

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 07:49 PM #48

    Maybe I am missing something here, but the bottom line is that iPad sales beat forecasts and revenues are UP 20%. How exactly is that a miss?

    Sure iPhone and iPod sales are down, but everyone and their dog knows iPhone 5 is coming given the rumours that come out every day, and that is probably suppressing sales just like the quarter prior to iPhone 4S.

    People are making out this quarter is some sort of disaster. Owners of most other businesses would kill to have a 20% increase in revenue.

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 08:24 PM #49

    It’s a miss in expectations.

    20% growth is stunning to the market.

    You know the game.  The reality is something more like 35-45% revs growth and 45-55% EPS growth year over year.

    There is nothing wrong with Apple.  Seasonality and cycles are now finally gaining visibility, is all.

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 08:47 PM #50

    Iphone sales were only a little less than I expected (26 vs my 28 estimate) - but iPad sales were way off, and I think they were below apples forecasts too. 2 things seemed to contribute to this: the unexpected slowdown in Europe & the very long process to get iPad certified to sell in China. I think if those 2 markets performed as apple expected iPad sales would have topped 20 million.

    But the real big miss in the EPS came from the collapse in Gross Margin - the reasons given n the Call implying that it is not going to get any better next quarter.

    Was anyone else shocked to hear Tim Cook say that iphone sales in June took a hit due to “new product rumors”??? This bodes very badly for the next quarter unless we see a Sep iPhone 5 launch…

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 09:37 PM #51

    Burgess - 24 July 2012 11:47 PM

    Iphone sales were only a little less than I expected (26 vs my 28 estimate) - but iPad sales were way off, and I think they were below apples forecasts too. 2 things seemed to contribute to this: the unexpected slowdown in Europe & the very long process to get iPad certified to sell in China. I think if those 2 markets performed as apple expected iPad sales would have topped 20 million.

    But the real big miss in the EPS came from the collapse in Gross Margin - the reasons given n the Call implying that it is not going to get any better next quarter.

    Was anyone else shocked to hear Tim Cook say that iphone sales in June took a hit due to “new product rumors”??? This bodes very badly for the next quarter unless we see a Sep iPhone 5 launch…

    The lower price point alternatives for IPad and IPhone didn’t help either, and may have taken market share from the top priced one.  They need to come up with something to fix this.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 10:21 PM #52

    For whose sake?

    Shareholders’, or Apple’s?

    Apple does not change to suit the whims of shareholders.  If shareholders don’t like it, well some are leaving tomorrow.

    Apple could theoretically benefit from an iPhone launch in between the main iPhone cycle.  Apple could theoretically benefit from an iPad mini launch within the next three months or so.  At least that second one has some possibility of being true.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 10:37 PM #53

    The problem with Apple that I see is that they are too slow to refresh the iPhone.  Everyone knows now that it’s a once a year release, so if you don’t buy the new model within 3-4 months of release, you may as well wait for the next one.  Take me for example, I was hoping for a new form factor and larger screen with the 4S - didn’t happen, so I am holding out with my 3GS until the 5 is out.  You also have competitors bringing better and better products out on a nearly weekly basis, so Apple is experiencing slow death (or leeching) by a thousand swords.

    They should mix it up a little and change the cycles in their product releases.  It’s too predicable now and people just wait, leading to lopsided results and missed expectations.

    With all their resources if anyone can do it certainly they can.

    If they do NOT come out with a 7” iPad, for example, I will be severely pissed.  I didn’t like how Tim Cook brushed off the analyst comment about the Nexus 7. 

    I worry that they are too internalized and are turning a blind eye to the ever increasing competition.  They need to respond and innovate faster.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 10:41 PM #54

    See previous post.  Does serving shareholders first and foremost serve consumers serve Apple?

    For iPhone, Apple will not release new flagship iPhones until iOS 6 is done until proven otherwise.  They will not redesign the iPhone except once every 24-27 months until proven otherwise.

    A new iPhone once a year.  A new iPad once a year.  A new iOS once a year.  What more can you reasonably ask for?

    You could make multiple skews of a smartphone.  Only Samsung is doing so profitably, and really, it’s more of them being a giant corporation already and pushing the mix towards…wait for it…higher-margin higher-priced smartphones.

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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 10:44 PM #55

    Mav - 25 July 2012 01:21 AM

    For whose sake?

    Shareholders’, or Apple’s?

    Apple does not change to suit the whims of shareholders.  If shareholders don’t like it, well some are leaving tomorrow.

    Apple could theoretically benefit from an iPhone launch in between the main iPhone cycle.  Apple could theoretically benefit from an iPad mini launch within the next three months or so.  At least that second one has some possibility of being true.

    Mav - AAPL is up against competitors that are getting better and better.  They are up against a global economic slowdown, customers that are affecting their bottom line because of the new product timing predictability, and their biological clock is ticking…oops…forget that last comment…that was from My Cousin Vinny.
    Seriously though - they are a public company and although they need to come up with the world’s best products - execution and delivery also count.  They need it to affect their bottom line as well. And yes, they DO care about their bottom line or else their margins wouldn’t be 40%+ and wouldn’t be demanding subsidies.  So moving around their timing on some products would help at many levels.  IMHO

    [ Edited: 24 July 2012 10:46 PM by Phoebear611 ]

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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 10:46 PM #56

    Mav - 25 July 2012 01:41 AM

    See previous post.  Does serving shareholders first and foremost serve consumers serve Apple?

    For iPhone, Apple will not release new flagship iPhones until iOS 6 is done until proven otherwise.  They will not redesign the iPhone except once every 24-27 months until proven otherwise.

    A new iPhone once a year.  A new iPad once a year.  A new iOS once a year.  What more can you reasonably ask for?

    You could make multiple skews of a smartphone.  Only Samsung is doing so profitably, and really, it’s more of them being a giant corporation already and pushing the mix towards…wait for it…higher-margin higher-priced smartphones.

    Clearly consumers, based on the results, want more.  The drop off in iPhone demand so early is troubling.  Once a year is too slow of a velocity.  Do a 5 and then a 5S 6 or 8 months later. 12 full months is an eternity in the fast moving smartphone market and is allowing the competition to bite Apple, and the competition is getting better every day.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 10:50 PM #57

    Phoebear611 - 25 July 2012 01:44 AM

    Mav - AAPL is up against competitors that are getting better and better.  They are up against a global economic slowdown, customers that are affecting their bottom line because of the new product timing predictability, and their biological clock is ticking…oops…forget that last comment…that was from My Cousin Vinny.
    Seriously though - they are a public company and although they need to come up with the world’s best products - execution and delivery also count.  They need it to affect their bottom line as well. And yes, they DO care about their bottom line or else their margins wouldn’t be 40%+ and wouldn’t be demanding subsidies.  So moving around their timing on some products would help at many levels.  IMHO

    They’ve already done so to the best of their ability given the iOS product portfolio.

    iPad - March

    iPhone - September/October

    You solve this problem with more iOS models.  Whether Apple goes down that road is a question only they can answer.

    Your first hint is if an iPad mini emerges from the rumors.  Your second hint is if something that could pass for another version of an iPhone with some design tweaks emerges from the iPod family.

    Apple addressed demand curve almost too well with iPhone 4S.  The jury’s still out on iPad, but 84% YOY growth isn’t too shabby considering China had no access to it except via Hong Kong and the gray market in fiscal Q3 2012.

    Tim solved one problem with iPhone - getting product out there to minimize the effect of supply shortages potentially driving consumers to the competition - and gained another (the sooner you satisfy demand, the faster it ebbs).

    Not defenses of Apple.  As far as expectations, earnings were miserable, a joke, a giant miss, you name it.  But it’s easy, albeit in painful hindsight, to assess the “state of play”.

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  • Posted: 24 July 2012 10:51 PM #58

    They should not deviate from the current refresh cycle. Multiple iPhone and iPad releases in a given year would dilute the brand. As a consumer, I would be super pissed off to see my brand new iPhone become outdated in half a year (just like I was super pissed off to see my Android phone no longer get OS updates less than half a year into its life).

    We have to simply face the fact that earnings will be heavily skewed toward Q4 until Apple produces a product that is as popular and has margins that rival the iPhone. That may never happen.

    I am not worried about the outlook right now. If the new iPhone isn’t as big of a success as I think it will be, then I will start to get worried.

         
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    Posted: 24 July 2012 10:53 PM #59

    Mav - 25 July 2012 01:41 AM

    See previous post.  Does serving shareholders first and foremost serve consumers serve Apple?

    For iPhone, Apple will not release new flagship iPhones until iOS 6 is done until proven otherwise.  They will not redesign the iPhone except once every 24-27 months until proven otherwise.

    A new iPhone once a year.  A new iPad once a year.  A new iOS once a year.  What more can you reasonably ask for?

    You could make multiple skews of a smartphone.  Only Samsung is doing so profitably, and really, it’s more of them being a giant corporation already and pushing the mix towards…wait for it…higher-margin higher-priced smartphones.

    I’m not sure - people buying less iPhones sends a signal to me that apple isn’t serving consumers or shareholders needs.

    I would much prefer a new iOS coming 6 months after an iPhone launch, imagine if iOS 6 was released in April - the iPhone 4S would all of a sudden be much more attractive with all the new features.

    As it is now, the iPhone 4S will become better once iOS 6 comes out later this year - but any extension of sales from the 4S as the premier apple phone will not happen as no one will notice the change seeing as the iPhone 5 will become the premier phone.

    At the moment the iPad is in that role, it launches with a 6 month old version of iOS, and mid life cycle it receives a iOS upgrade. The 3rd generation iPad in October will be a more attractive device than it is now.

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    Posted: 24 July 2012 10:54 PM #60

    By that I assume you mean Calendar Q4/Fiscal Q1s.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
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