Keep any iPhone 15 Pro or later. Replace an iPhone 13 or anything older. The line that decides it is not iOS 27, which runs on iPhone 11 and later plus iPhone SE from the second generation, but Apple Intelligence, which needs an iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max or iPhone 16 or later for the full feature set.
The arithmetic has also turned against replacing. On September 9 Apple listed four of the phones it kept $100 higher than the day before, discontinued iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max, and its trade-in values fell the same day, some by as much as $120. Replacing a working phone costs more this month than it did last month, at both ends of the transaction.
Key facts on keeping rather than replacing
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Oldest iPhone that gets iOS 27 | iPhone 11, plus iPhone SE from the second generation |
| Oldest iPhone with full Apple Intelligence | iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max, then iPhone 16 or later |
| Keep it | iPhone 15 Pro, 15 Pro Max, 16, 16 Pro, 16 Pro Max, 17, 17 Pro, 17 Pro Max, iPhone Air |
| Judgement call | iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Pro, iPhone 15 |
| Replace it | iPhone 13 and anything older |
| What replacing costs now | iPhone 17 from $899, iPhone 18 Pro from $1,199, iPhone 18 Pro Max from $1,299 |
| Apple’s published trade-in figure | A range: $175 to $885 in the US for an iPhone 13 or later |
| Per-model trade-in table | Not published by Apple |
| Software cost of keeping | None. iOS 27 is free from Monday, September 14 |
iOS 27 is not a reason to replace anything
Apple’s device list for iOS 27 starts at iPhone 11, which shipped in 2019. If your phone is on that list, the free update on Monday, September 14 keeps you on current software, and no feature in the release requires new hardware to install.
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What does require newer hardware is the Apple Intelligence layer, and Apple draws that line at iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 16 or later. Siri AI, the conversational assistant with personal context, launches in beta in English with French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish following in October, and Apple Intelligence covers 16 languages in total, counting Simplified and Traditional Chinese separately. If you own a phone below that line and you do not want those features, the update alone is enough.
One honest note about updating an older phone. Apple documents post-update battery drain in support article 120745 and warmth during and after an update in 118431, so a few days of unusual behaviour after September 14 is described behaviour rather than a fault. Apple has published no downgrade document for public releases, so plan to stay on the version you install.
Keep it: iPhone 15 Pro and later
An iPhone 15 Pro still has the things that separate a current phone from an old one: USB-C at USB 3 speeds of 10Gb/s, a 120Hz ProMotion display, a 48MP main camera at 24mm f/1.78, a three-lens system with a 3x telephoto, 23 hours of rated video playback, and the Apple Intelligence eligibility that iPhone 15 does not have. iPhone 16 Pro moves the telephoto to 5x at 120mm and the rating to 27 hours, and iPhone 17 Pro reaches 33 hours.
Against that, iPhone 18 Pro offers a variable aperture, an 8x optical-quality crop, 36 hours and the A20 Pro. Those are real gains, and they are refinements of capabilities you already own. The catch in replacing is that the phone you would buy costs $1,199, or $1,299 unlocked, while the phone you would give up has lost trade-in value since September 8.
Replace it: iPhone 13 and older
iPhone 13 is where keeping stops paying. It has a Lightning port on USB 2, a notch rather than Dynamic Island, MagSafe at 15W, a 12MP main camera with no 48MP sensor, up to 19 hours of rated video playback, and no path to Apple Intelligence at any software version. iPhone 12 and older sit further behind on every one of those lines.
The catch is the credit. The value recorded for an iPhone 13 is $175, which is also the bottom of the range Apple publishes, and reaching a recorded ceiling needs a phone in flawless condition. Treat these as values recorded for individual models rather than a table Apple publishes, because Apple publishes only the $175 to $885 range.
The judgement calls, with the numbers
| Phone you own | Port and display | Apple Intelligence | Value recorded | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 13 | Lightning, notch, no ProMotion | No | $175 | Replace |
| iPhone 14 | Lightning, notch, no ProMotion | No | $195 | Replace when convenient |
| iPhone 14 Pro | Lightning, Dynamic Island, ProMotion | No | $285 | Keep one more year |
| iPhone 15 | USB-C at USB 2, Dynamic Island | No | $305 | Keep unless you want Siri AI |
| iPhone 15 Pro | USB-C at USB 3, ProMotion | Yes | $370 | Keep |
| iPhone 16 | USB-C at USB 2, Dynamic Island | Yes | $430 | Keep |
| iPhone 16 Pro | USB-C at USB 3, 5x telephoto | Yes | $510 | Keep |
| iPhone 17 Pro | USB-C at USB 3, 8x optical-quality | Yes | $785 | Keep |
iPhone 14 Pro is the one that surprises people. It is on Lightning, which is the strongest argument for moving on, but it has Dynamic Island, ProMotion and a 48MP main camera, and its recorded value of $285 buys little toward a $929 iPhone 17 or a $1,299 iPhone 18 Pro. Keep it a year and let the cable be the annoyance.
iPhone 15 is the other. It has USB-C, Dynamic Island and a 48MP main camera, and it misses Apple Intelligence by one tier, because the cutoff is the Pro models of that generation. If Siri AI is the reason you are shopping, that is a real reason to replace it. If it is not, keep the phone.
What has not been confirmed
Apple publishes no per-model trade-in table, only the $175 to $885 range for an iPhone 13 or later, and its estimator is a questionnaire rather than a price list. It has not published per-device AppleCare+ prices for any September 2026 product. It has given no reason for the $100 increases, because it announced none. Apple Certified Refurbished has no iPhone 17 generation stock yet, and Apple publishes no schedule for when refurbished stock appears, so waiting for a cheaper recent Pro has no date attached.
iOS 27 arrives Monday, September 14 for every phone above, free. If you decide to replace rather than keep, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reach stores on Friday, September 18, with a second wave of countries on Friday, September 25, and iPhone Duo ships on Friday, October 23.
