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AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)
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Earnings Report Day
R4 90.87
[ Edited: 22 January 2009 12:38 AM by DawnTreader ]
midpoint 88.97
R3 87.07
midpoint 85.17
R2 83.27
midpoint 82.00
R1 80.73
midpoint 80.10
PP 79.47
midpoint 78.20
S1 76.93
midpoint 76.30
S2 75.67
midpoint 73.77
S3 71.87
midpoint 69.97
S4 68.07 -
[sighs] S2 is 75. I suppose we’ll be there sooner or later. And as for S4…
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Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain
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Along with WillRob’s S&R numbers from above, I’ll add this for Wed/earnings day:
Maybe we will have some decent action thanks to the positive forward guidance from IBM. Perhaps with Apple sans SJ, they will try a different approach on their forward guidance? Still, with the economy so weak, it would be understandable for it to be underwhelming. Just please, not preposterous!
Futures green ATM. Maybe the news that Citi has finally admitted they will slash the dividend to almost nill will act like a “ripping off of the bandaid” allowing the finacials an oversold rally at least. That will help the indices recover a bit of ground. There was also news AH that QCOM was buying AMD’s handset business. A little M&A (even if just a business unit) couldn’t hurt. That concludes tonight’s annoying optimist report.
Edit: Just saw on Bloomberg that Chris Cox has resigned as chairman of the SEC, handing the reigns over to Mary Shapiro. Forgive me if this is old news or was expected as of today. I’m still shaking sand out of my ears.
[ Edited: 21 January 2009 01:06 AM by kiwitrader ] -
That concludes tonight’s annoying optimist report.
Wait. . .AAPL was up over a $1 in AH on over 900K shares. I’m not too interested in the $1, but 900K shares on no news is huge.
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“Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.” ?Norman Vincent Peale
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Just saw on Bloomberg that Chris Cox has resigned as chairman of the SEC, handing the reigns over to Mary Shapiro.
Flipping the uptick rule back on will be a good start when 65% of Citi shares trading are short. With the uptick rule it would be impossible to jam down a stock like that.
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Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).
For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.
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I like to see the uptick rule reinstated in the next few days. That should give the market breathing room.
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Big day for Apple tomorrow. iPhone sales don’t have any kind of predictable seasonality yet, especially due to the iPhone 3G effect running up the numbers. Looking forward to the continued non-GAAP numbers, they really do help paint a clearer picture of Apple’s growth trajectory.
As for the uptick rule, the sooner it comes back the better.
[ Edited: 21 January 2009 05:32 AM by Mav ]Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
For the sake of the overall market the uptick rule will be a tremendous improvement. If they follow that with cancelling the mark-to-market policies we may see a real bank recovery.
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I was greatly encouraged by IBM’s report, but when I took a closer look I noted that hardware sales were down 20 per cent from previous year. It was software and services, especially the various locked-in contracts clients have with IBM, that saved Big Blue. Of course, Apple is overwhelmingly a company that sells kit, not software (despite iTunes, App Store, etc), and of course the vast majority of its hardware is consumer discretionary (as the Street so lovingly likes to remind the share price…).
I can’t get a good read on analysts’ expectations at all: different analysts are coming up with comparable figures and drawing wildly different conclusions, which makes it difficult to infer how the market will react. I felt very confident about this earnings report until a week ago… Eh bien, we’ll know soon enough.
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Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain
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Economists and financial observers appear to believe that most large banks (at least UK and US) are insolvent. Many suggest nationalisation is the only way to salvage the banks and restart lending. Whilst this might ultimately prove necessary to save the rest of the economy, it will wipe out current bank shareholders.
On the other hand, without radical measures, the banks will continue to die a slow death and be economically useless in the meantime (‘zombie banks’, ‘dead bank walking’): so—bad for the economy and nothing really saved for the shareholder in this case either.
The middle way (which I’ve seen the FDIC et al advocate) is separating the bad assets from the banks, generally through some sort of government purchase (this was the of course the original intention of TARP). However, the consensus now appears to be that the dodgy securities are not worth anything like as much as the banks are claiming, even now, so the government (ie taxpayers) would have to substantially overpay the banks to save them. But this is the only way to save something for shareholders.
Despite the fact that I’m currently holding C shares that have lost about 90 per cent of their value, I realise the ‘save the shareholders’ option isn’t at all fair to taxpayers. On the other hand, I just don’t think a compelled nationalisation (a la S&Ls;in the ‘90s) of the biggest banks in the country could be carried out without massive disruption. Which is why I suspect the government will have to try some sort of asset quarantine, even though it bails out the capitalists and may not even work.
We may be fracked. :eg:
Aw shucks, AAPL is already up to 79.65 in premarket trading. I shouldn’t have let this board dissuade me from buying at 78ish. :groucho:
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Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain
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Aw shucks, AAPL is already up to 79.65 in premarket trading. I shouldn’t have let this board dissuade me from buying at 78ish. :groucho:
Don’t fret. I’m sure you’ll get another opportunity to buy at that level in the near future.
Perhaps as early as tomorrow after the usual, regardless of earnings, sell-the-news dump.
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“Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.” ?Norman Vincent Peale
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Bought a little @ $79.50. Expect a nice pop after earnings.
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“Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
- Jimi Hendrix -
Bought a little @ $79.50. Expect a nice pop after earnings.
Me too…and then…a nice drop after the CC.
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“the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
-John Maynard Keynes -
Bought a little @ $79.50. Expect a nice pop after earnings.
Me too! I think (and hope :oh: ) that today is the last chance to buy AAPL in the low 80’s or even below. 8-)
I do not believe that there will be a big drop after CC :!: -
In my opinion any strength here will present an opportunity for a short going into earnings, and for the coming days. The tell will be the S&P. If the index fails to break through 818-820, and gets repelled soundly, then the short is a go. If we close just above 818-820, then cash is best until things settle out. If we make a strong impulsive move above 818-820, perhaps to 830, then a small AAPL long with tight stops around the 79 area would make some sense.
-ernie
edited 818 to 818-820
[ Edited: 21 January 2009 11:49 AM by erntheburn ]Signature
Sometimes I sits and thinks, sometimes I just sits
-Wish you were here -
Oh boy. I should heed the afterschool oracle and ‘believe in myself’, ha ha.
Edited: now all of you are jumping in? Where were you lot when I was debating a 78.50 purchase?
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Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain
