AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 20 January 2009 09:03 PM

    Earnings Report Day

    R4     90.87
    midpoint   88.97
    R3     87.07
    midpoint   85.17
    R2     83.27
    midpoint   82.00
    R1     80.73
    midpoint   80.10
    PP     79.47
    midpoint   78.20
    S1     76.93
    midpoint   76.30
    S2     75.67
    midpoint   73.77
    S3     71.87
    midpoint   69.97
    S4     68.07

    [ Edited: 21 January 2009 11:38 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 20 January 2009 09:42 PM #1

    [sighs] S2 is 75.  I suppose we’ll be there sooner or later.  And as for S4…

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    Posted: 20 January 2009 11:44 PM #2

    Along with WillRob’s S&R numbers from above, I’ll add this for Wed/earnings day:

    Maybe we will have some decent action thanks to the positive forward guidance from IBM. Perhaps with Apple sans SJ, they will try a different approach on their forward guidance? Still, with the economy so weak, it would be understandable for it to be underwhelming.  Just please, not preposterous!

    Futures green ATM. Maybe the news that Citi has finally admitted they will slash the dividend to almost nill will act like a “ripping off of the bandaid” allowing the finacials an oversold rally at least. That will help the indices recover a bit of ground. There was also news AH that QCOM was buying AMD’s handset business. A little M&A (even if just a business unit) couldn’t hurt. That concludes tonight’s annoying optimist report.  grin

    Edit: Just saw on Bloomberg that Chris Cox has resigned as chairman of the SEC, handing the reigns over to Mary Shapiro. Forgive me if this is old news or was expected as of today. I’m still shaking sand out of my ears.

    [ Edited: 21 January 2009 12:06 AM by kiwitrader ]      
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 12:12 AM #3

    kiwitrader - 21 January 2009 03:44 AM

    That concludes tonight’s annoying optimist report.  grin

    Wait. . .AAPL was up over a $1 in AH on over 900K shares.  I’m not too interested in the $1, but 900K shares on no news is huge.

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 02:50 AM #4

    kiwitrader - 21 January 2009 03:44 AM

    Just saw on Bloomberg that Chris Cox has resigned as chairman of the SEC, handing the reigns over to Mary Shapiro.

    Flipping the uptick rule back on will be a good start when 65% of Citi shares trading are short. With the uptick rule it would be impossible to jam down a stock like that.

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  • Posted: 21 January 2009 03:16 AM #5

    I like to see the uptick rule reinstated in the next few days.  That should give the market breathing room.

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 04:28 AM #6

    Big day for Apple tomorrow.  iPhone sales don’t have any kind of predictable seasonality yet, especially due to the iPhone 3G effect running up the numbers.  Looking forward to the continued non-GAAP numbers, they really do help paint a clearer picture of Apple’s growth trajectory. 

    As for the uptick rule, the sooner it comes back the better.

    [ Edited: 21 January 2009 04:32 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 21 January 2009 08:31 AM #7

    For the sake of the overall market the uptick rule will be a tremendous improvement.  If they follow that with cancelling the mark-to-market policies we may see a real bank recovery.

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 09:16 AM #8

    I was greatly encouraged by IBM’s report, but when I took a closer look I noted that hardware sales were down 20 per cent from previous year.  It was software and services, especially the various locked-in contracts clients have with IBM, that saved Big Blue.  Of course, Apple is overwhelmingly a company that sells kit, not software (despite iTunes, App Store, etc), and of course the vast majority of its hardware is consumer discretionary (as the Street so lovingly likes to remind the share price…).

    I can’t get a good read on analysts’ expectations at all: different analysts are coming up with comparable figures and drawing wildly different conclusions, which makes it difficult to infer how the market will react.  I felt very confident about this earnings report until a week ago…  Eh bien, we’ll know soon enough.

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:03 AM #9

    Economists and financial observers appear to believe that most large banks (at least UK and US) are insolvent.  Many suggest nationalisation is the only way to salvage the banks and restart lending.  Whilst this might ultimately prove necessary to save the rest of the economy, it will wipe out current bank shareholders.

    On the other hand, without radical measures, the banks will continue to die a slow death and be economically useless in the meantime (‘zombie banks’, ‘dead bank walking’): so—bad for the economy and nothing really saved for the shareholder in this case either.

    The middle way (which I’ve seen the FDIC et al advocate) is separating the bad assets from the banks, generally through some sort of government purchase (this was the of course the original intention of TARP).  However, the consensus now appears to be that the dodgy securities are not worth anything like as much as the banks are claiming, even now, so the government (ie taxpayers) would have to substantially overpay the banks to save them.  But this is the only way to save something for shareholders.

    Despite the fact that I’m currently holding C shares that have lost about 90 per cent of their value, I realise the ‘save the shareholders’ option isn’t at all fair to taxpayers.  On the other hand, I just don’t think a compelled nationalisation (a la S&Ls;in the ‘90s) of the biggest banks in the country could be carried out without massive disruption.  Which is why I suspect the government will have to try some sort of asset quarantine, even though it bails out the capitalists and may not even work.

    We may be fracked.  :eg:

    Aw shucks, AAPL is already up to 79.65 in premarket trading.  I shouldn’t have let this board dissuade me from buying at 78ish.  :groucho:

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:22 AM #10

    Winterpool - 21 January 2009 02:03 PM

    Aw shucks, AAPL is already up to 79.65 in premarket trading.  I shouldn’t have let this board dissuade me from buying at 78ish.  :groucho:

    Don’t fret. I’m sure you’ll get another opportunity to buy at that level in the near future. 
    Perhaps as early as tomorrow after the usual, regardless of earnings, sell-the-news dump.  rolleyes

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:31 AM #11

    Bought a little @ $79.50.  Expect a nice pop after earnings.

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:36 AM #12

    incorrigible - 21 January 2009 02:31 PM

    Bought a little @ $79.50.  Expect a nice pop after earnings.

    Me too…and then…a nice drop after the CC.  rolleyes

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:42 AM #13

    incorrigible - 21 January 2009 02:31 PM

    Bought a little @ $79.50.  Expect a nice pop after earnings.

    Me too! I think (and hope :oh: ) that today is the last chance to buy AAPL in the low 80’s or even below. 8-)
    I do not believe that there will be a big drop after CC :!:

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:44 AM #14

    In my opinion any strength here will present an opportunity for a short going into earnings, and for the coming days. The tell will be the S&P. If the index fails to break through 818-820, and gets repelled soundly, then the short is a go. If we close just above 818-820, then cash is best until things settle out. If we make a strong impulsive move above 818-820, perhaps to 830, then a small AAPL long with tight stops around the 79 area would make some sense.

    -ernie

    edited 818 to 818-820

    [ Edited: 21 January 2009 10:49 AM by erntheburn ]

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 10:58 AM #15

    Oh boy.  I should heed the afterschool oracle and ‘believe in myself’, ha ha.

    Edited: now all of you are jumping in?  Where were you lot when I was debating a 78.50 purchase?  tongue laugh

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain