AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 18 March 2009 12:54 AM

    Wednesday After Green Beer Day

    R4         112.00
      midpoint   109.69
    R3       107.38
      midpoint   105.07
    R2       102.76
      midpoint   101.99
    R1       101.21
      midpoint   99.68
    PP       98.14
      midpoint   97.37
    S1       96.59
      midpoint   95.06
    S2       93.52
      midpoint   91.21
    S3       88.90
      midpoint   86.59
    S4       84.28

    [ Edited: 22 March 2009 01:00 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 05:19 AM #1

    Well that’s just typical. I had to go out for yesterday evening, which meant I missed the last 90 minutes of trading. As I left AAPL was starting to nosedive with what I thought was the typical post-event sell-off under way. When I returned AAPL was 3 bucks higher! It looks like I turned my screen off about 2 minutes before the sell-off ended and the climb into the close began. Now my short is looking rather ill.

    If it weren’t for a combination of an expected sell-off post-event and quad witching this week I think I would have dumped it by now. I anticipate that the rate decision (I am guessing no change) may signal a possible turning point in this rally.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2009 06:16 AM #2

    wheeles - 18 March 2009 08:19 AM

    Well that’s just typical. I had to go out for yesterday evening, which meant I missed the last 90 minutes of trading. As I left AAPL was starting to nosedive with what I thought was the typical post-event sell-off under way. When I returned AAPL was 3 bucks higher! It looks like I turned my screen off about 2 minutes before the sell-off ended and the climb into the close began. Now my short is looking rather ill.

    If it weren’t for a combination of an expected sell-off post-event and quad witching this week I think I would have dumped it by now. I anticipate that the rate decision (I am guessing no change) may signal a possible turning point in this rally.

    Wheels…i think we will see a drop this or next week… the financial troubles are still there (recession in the UK will last till 2011 they say…) and a warm sunny summer seems far away. That said….it’s about time everyone opens his or hers badbooks, dust off the dirt so we can call it a bottom…..

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 07:09 AM #3

    MacB - 18 March 2009 09:16 AM

    Wheels…i think we will see a drop this or next week… the financial troubles are still there (recession in the UK will last till 2011 they say…) and a warm sunny summer seems far away. That said….it’s about time everyone opens his or hers badbooks, dust off the dirt so we can call it a bottom…..

    Oh, I know this is a bear market rally, and I know that things will turn sooner or later. I guess I’m just getting a little irritated at myself for making a habit of getting on the wrong side of each move when it’s only half done.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2009 08:28 AM #4

    wheeles - 18 March 2009 10:09 AM
    MacB - 18 March 2009 09:16 AM

    Wheels…i think we will see a drop this or next week… the financial troubles are still there (recession in the UK will last till 2011 they say…) and a warm sunny summer seems far away. That said….it’s about time everyone opens his or hers badbooks, dust off the dirt so we can call it a bottom…..

    Oh, I know this is a bear market rally, and I know that things will turn sooner or later. I guess I’m just getting a little irritated at myself for making a habit of getting on the wrong side of each move when it’s only half done.

    I know the drill Wheeles…everytime we go up i get out too soon because i dont want to loose that little profit….when i get in at a point where i think..“do it before it is too late” it turns out to be too fast and we fall for another week….my profit could have been at least twice that much with the right timing….

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 09:22 AM #5

    MacB and I seem to make all the same classic mistakes.  tongue laugh

    We get the results of the FOMC meeting today, of course, but I am increasingly worried about the fallout from the incipient ‘Bonfire of the Vanities’ over the AIG bonuses.  This could be the bonus that broke the taxpayer’s back, or at least his willingness to bail out bankers who put the world economy trillions in the hole.  Political factors make it difficult for the administration to do the right thing by the banks, and this sort of thing doesn’t make the politics any easier.  All manner of ridiculousness is being suggested, from abrogation of contracts (just the thing for a capitalist, market economy!) to targeted punitive taxes to seppuku.

    As to AAPL, with prices as high as they are now, I can only hope options expiration will pull the price down to 95 by week’s end.  There’s a lot of media coverage that seems like it would encourage the average investor get back into AAPL (and equities in general) perhaps taking us over 100.  Meanwhile Jeff Macke says, sell AAPL, as well as GS and MS.  This mirrors his suggestion to get out of AAPL in February at the 100-103 level.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2009 09:36 AM #6

    wheeles - 18 March 2009 08:19 AM

    Well that’s just typical. I had to go out for yesterday evening, which meant I missed the last 90 minutes of trading. As I left AAPL was starting to nosedive with what I thought was the typical post-event sell-off under way. When I returned AAPL was 3 bucks higher! It looks like I turned my screen off about 2 minutes before the sell-off ended and the climb into the close began. Now my short is looking rather ill.

    If it weren’t for a combination of an expected sell-off post-event and quad witching this week I think I would have dumped it by now. I anticipate that the rate decision (I am guessing no change) may signal a possible turning point in this rally.

    Ditto - my Puts don’t look too healthy either! But the market - short term - is so overbought and 7400 on the Dow is resistance I am convinced that we will have a correction in the next couple of days. But if AAPL continues climbing above 100 and breaks our old high of 103.6 from December I am switching positions and go long.

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2009 09:36 AM #7

    I wouldn’t mind a new entry point…this rollercoaster-ride isn’t; over yet (will it ever?) so I watch the numbers like a hawk ready to strike…heheheh
    It seems to me that the fallout from yesterday’s presentation will be a bit luke warm… they presented stufff that we think is great but that others offer for years…the real exciting stuff is so new that “they” dont get it really…it will take time and ready to use apps to comprehend.

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2009 09:57 AM #8

    Just hit 100 in PM.

    Edit: 100.40 now and the volume is picking up significantly - did we get un updgrade this morning?

    [ Edited: 18 March 2009 09:59 AM by Plato ]

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 10:00 AM #9

    Okay folks, here is my call on the broad markets. Either yesterday’s high/close was it, or one more shot to a high today before a reversal. If today does not take out yesterday’s high, it is going to form a classic reversal on a daily chart?just the opposite of what AAPL did on Jan 20. Wave analysis, projections, and tradition TA point to a possible minor rally attempt to take out yesterday’s high. Robert HcHugh has been stating for a week that there is another major fib. reversal date coming up on Mar. 18/equinox, and whatever the market is trading towards that date will see a reversal. Worst case was the markets would rally up into those dates. That is why I wanted a nice correction downward into them so the reversal would be powerful to the upside. It looks like the worst case is setting up. Ditto for AAPL.

    For AAPL, the recent sideways stall has alleviated some of the extreme overbought conditions on the 90-min chart, but has allowed the daily to catch up and approach overbought conditions. We are close to getting all ducks lined up for overbought sell off. I personally think the correction will be sharp, but don’t think it will take out the market lows, but there are others who disagree.

    Again take this prediction as just that. It may prove wrong, but I am not going against the technicals and buying at this late stage of the rally.

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 10:11 AM #10

    Given the fact that AAPL (and the broader markets) failed to suffer a minor correction up till now, and therefore your ‘worst case’ seems more likely, are you then expecting the end of this rally cycle (ie this is not the 20-30 per cent ‘bear rally’).  Or does there remain a chance for a sustained rally off whatever correction we obtain?

    (This is essentially asking: should I buy 90-95 or wait for the 80s again.  :wink: )

    Edited: ten minutes till the opening bell, and we’ve turned red.  By one cent.

    [ Edited: 18 March 2009 10:22 AM by Winterpool ]

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 10:23 AM #11

    Both BAC and C are up.

    Core inflation came out this morning. Number was above expectations.  From Barrons:

    “In February, consumer price inflation accelerated on a spike in energy costs, coming in higher than expectations. The headline CPI rose 0.4 percent in February, following a 0.3 percent boost the month before, giving inflation hawks reason to start worrying again. The February number topped market expectations for a 0.3 percent gain. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation came in at 0.2 percent, unchanged from January and matching the consensus.

    The increase in the headline CPI was led by a 3.3 percent jump in energy costs, after a 1.7 percent rise in January. Gasoline spiked 8.3 percent in the latest month. Turning to the other big component in the headline CPI, food actually slipped 0.1 percent. “

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 10:32 AM #12

    Economists currently fear deflation, not inflation, so perhaps this would be interpreted as a positive development?  But the fact that it’s mainly owing to higher energy prices would further pinch the consumer’s pocket and so threaten already weak spending, no?

    The rise in new car prices was a shock to me.

    Edited: here we go.  Will we see 101-103 today?  I wouldn’t bet against it.

    On the other hand, I wouldn’t bet on it either.  So, I am in stasis.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 10:35 AM #13

    AAPL up $1.00+.  Figures.  It’s all because I sold at $98 yesterday.  rolleyes

    Oh well.  Will wait for a pullback to jump back in.

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  • Posted: 18 March 2009 10:37 AM #14

    101 has been visited. But bounced off.

    EDIT: now broke through R1

    [ Edited: 18 March 2009 10:40 AM by willrob ]      
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    Posted: 18 March 2009 10:39 AM #15

    Over 101 now.  Bloody heck, we are going to see 103 today, aren’t we…

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain