Sept. Technical Analysis

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    Posted: 08 September 2009 10:48 PM

    This AAPL chart was posted on a bear blog:

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SqbkKjkg1gI/AAAAAAAABtc/ObgcRSlYzrs/s1600-h/appl.png

    I don’t quite agree with the the author that it is a reversal signal today. I’m calling for one more shot up a couple bucks tomorrow, then…

    Hey, isn’t tomorrow the sell the news day??

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    Posted: 15 September 2009 01:04 PM #1

    An interesting chart just posted a few minutes ago. Nice EW ending diagonal.

    Apple Chart

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    Posted: 15 September 2009 01:25 PM #2

    On a daily aapl has traded in a nice upward trend since March with successful tests on the upper and lower channels.  Upper channel would put aapl selling pressure at 185 range.  Needs to be in context with the indices though.  A chart aside from the indices is USELESS…

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  • Posted: 15 September 2009 01:33 PM #3

    My question is: Have these charts been proving out to be relatively accurate during this crisis mode. It seems to me, the longs have been coming out pretty good (that’s me being long AAPL). Did the charts keep shorter term traders from re-entering the markets, or did the the charts display quandary? It seems like some are so sure a big pullback is in the cards, they’ve missed a remarkable recovery. Others, who may have looked at the same charts, saw the recovery. Please elucidate.

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    Posted: 15 September 2009 01:36 PM #4

    Douglas Stanton - 15 September 2009 04:33 PM

    My question is: Have these charts been proving out to be relatively accurate during this crisis mode. It seems to me, the longs have been coming out pretty good (that’s me being long AAPL). Did the charts keep shorter term traders from re-entering the markets, or did the the charts display quandary? It seems like some are so sure a big pullback is in the cards, they’ve missed a remarkable recovery. Others, who may have looked at the same charts, saw the recovery. Please elucidate.

    This market has fooled even the seasoned Wall St investor / trader.  Technicals have not worked for the most part.

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  • Posted: 15 September 2009 01:58 PM #5

    runedge - 15 September 2009 04:36 PM
    Douglas Stanton - 15 September 2009 04:33 PM

    My question is: Have these charts been proving out to be relatively accurate during this crisis mode. It seems to me, the longs have been coming out pretty good (that’s me being long AAPL). Did the charts keep shorter term traders from re-entering the markets, or did the the charts display quandary? It seems like some are so sure a big pullback is in the cards, they’ve missed a remarkable recovery. Others, who may have looked at the same charts, saw the recovery. Please elucidate.

    This market has fooled even the seasoned Wall St investor / trader.  Technicals have not worked for the most part.

    Fascinating. It really seems that during quandary, the tools fall apart. Is this why the institutions couldn’t risk investing in a market where you would simply be betting on whether the economy survived or not? That’s what I did, and only in hindsight do I know I was right. I bought C at $1.19 simply betting that C would survive. (I bet some on WAMU and ended up really, really wrong). I bought BAC because of Eric added to my “it has to survive or the world is ending anyhow” scenario; Buying GE was an easier decision simply because I figured they had less exposure than the big banks to the bad asset thingy. I bought JPM because they had to survive because they bought Washington Mutual, and it’s where I keep my money. Survival seemed worth betting on; no longer did you have to worry about PE ratios. Survive or not survive was the question, is it cheap if it survives, if so, buy it.

    But now, since everything is up, shenanigans are much more probable. That’s what I’m much more interested in what the chartists have to say. I wish Tommo_UK would re-enter the conversation at this point.

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    Posted: 16 September 2009 11:20 AM #6

    The consensus at the bottom of the market was that technicals don’t work. The consensus at the top of the market is that technicals don’t work. That only leaves the middle of the market, and you will always find some who say then that technicals don’t work.

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    Posted: 16 September 2009 11:42 AM #7

    cramar - 16 September 2009 02:20 PM

    The consensus at the bottom of the market was that technicals don’t work. The consensus at the top of the market is that technicals don’t work. That only leaves the middle of the market, and you will always find some who say then that technicals don’t work.

    I don’t understand why guys said that technicals don’t work.  Look at this weekly chart.  Using the most basic technicals, RSI and MACD, a position trader would buy AAPL in Jan 09 since RSI is bullishly divergent with price between Oct-Dec 08 followed by a bullish cross of MACD in early Jan 09.  He would still be holding bulk of his trade since MACD is above signal line and likely had taken some off the table since RSI is overbought.  Just using two most common technical indicators, a position trader has already made tons.  IMHO: Technicals work.

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    Posted: 16 September 2009 11:51 AM #8

    Mace - 16 September 2009 02:42 PM
    cramar - 16 September 2009 02:20 PM

    The consensus at the bottom of the market was that technicals don’t work. The consensus at the top of the market is that technicals don’t work. That only leaves the middle of the market, and you will always find some who say then that technicals don’t work.

    I don’t understand why guys said that technicals don’t work.  Look at this weekly chart.  Using the most basic technicals, RSI and MACD, a position trader would buy AAPL in Jan 09 since RSI is bullishly divergent with price between Oct-Dec 08 followed by a bullish cross of MACD in early Jan 09.  He would still be holding bulk of his trade since MACD is above signal line and likely had taken some off the table since RSI is overbought.  Just using two most common technical indicators, a position trader has already made tons.  IMHO: Technicals work.

    It all depends on one’s time frame.  wink

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    Posted: 23 September 2009 11:03 PM #9

    Another blog posted a chart stating that AAPL (and some other bellwether tech stocks) have complete 5-wave sequences (double or triple zigzags) and look finished.  Unfortunately he didn’t EW label the AAPL chart.

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SrquBMjoTGI/AAAAAAAAB98/U8dL1113leg/s1600-h/apple.png

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 24 September 2009 01:22 AM #10

    cramar - 24 September 2009 02:03 AM

    Another blog posted a chart stating that AAPL (and some other bellwether tech stocks) have complete 5-wave sequences (double or triple zigzags) and look finished.  Unfortunately he didn’t EW label the AAPL chart.

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SrquBMjoTGI/AAAAAAAAB98/U8dL1113leg/s1600-h/apple.png

    Sounds like Dick Fulds a few days before LEH files bankruptcy saying all is well….  I say technicals right now truly do not work.  Perhaps technicals on the indices but on individual equities….NO!

    Bottom line is this market will stay overbought, irrational as long as it wants to.  Just be ready to trade accordingly as soon as she changes her mind.  You’ll miss the ultimate top and the ultimate bottom but not the opportunity in the middle.

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    Posted: 24 September 2009 11:44 AM #11

    cramar - 24 September 2009 02:03 AM

    Another blog posted a chart stating that AAPL (and some other bellwether tech stocks) have complete 5-wave sequences (double or triple zigzags) and look finished.  Unfortunately he didn’t EW label the AAPL chart.

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SrquBMjoTGI/AAAAAAAAB98/U8dL1113leg/s1600-h/apple.png

    From $164 is a completed 5-wave.  Is either wave one of the 1.v or wave 1 is completed.

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    Posted: 19 October 2009 11:47 PM #12

    So with an all time high there is NO overhead resistance.  How do we start to draw price targets other than PE ratios (and how do we know those with changes in accounting coming).  Are fibonnaci retracements our only tools for targets?

    Seems like the only thing that can really hold aapl back right now is the tape and we are heading into the two best months to be a bull and what should be very productive GDP (even though it is government not C, E or Investment induced).

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    Posted: 22 October 2009 08:53 AM #13

    Some charts from Seeking Alpha David Fry