Impact of leaked iPhone

  • Posted: 16 May 2010 11:34 AM

    We`ve all read and seen the pictures of leaked iPhone. I don’t want to talk about the details, but instead want to talk about the potential impact of the incident.

    We are all quite familiar with the iPhone product cycle and how to trade it—has the leak impacted this?

    We are entering the time where we should start reading all sorts of stories speculating about the next iPhone. Will it contain a front-facing camera?  Will it have a speedy new Apple processor? Will it have integrated IR for TV remote as well as an electronic car starter and electro-sonic knife sharpener? I wondering if the lack of mystery (or perceived lack of mystery) has removed some excitement and therefore will mean the pre-WWDC hype rally will either be muted or not occur at all?

    - will the leak make the slow pre-release quarter slower than we expect?
    - will the leak take some steam out of the pre-release ‘hype rally’ that we expect?

    Your thoughts?

         
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    Posted: 16 May 2010 12:13 PM #1

    Just to keep the speculation going.  We still could have a couple potential hidden features which were not revealed.  Near Field Communications (NFC) and MEMS Gyro.  We will also probably get to see a new Maps application with some of the Placebase input and maybe they tie in the work of SIRI and open an API to the virtual assistant.  The front facing camera will drive a revamp of the Messaging App and we can speculate on Apple delivering a SIP client as part of the package.  Apple could open the door to a bunch of new features which Apple has been documenting via recent patent filings. 

    As far as the run up into WWDC.  I’m wishing for a ATV with a SDK for game development.  Move the ATV to an A4 and open the device to the internet and let the developers run with it. 

    Bottom line is there are plenty of things we don’t know.  The only thing we do know is that after the event people will say it really was the real phone.

    [ Edited: 16 May 2010 12:43 PM by pats ]      
  • Posted: 16 May 2010 01:10 PM #2

    Zero impact except amongst we who chatter.

         
  • Posted: 17 May 2010 02:25 AM #3

    roni - 16 May 2010 04:10 PM

    Zero impact except amongst we who chatter.

    On the contrary, I believe this event had low impact among we who chatter and possibly a large impact among those normally not ‘in the loop,’ i.e. most of the market. As macdailnews.com wrote:

    http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/25248/
    “Of course, we all know when new iPhones come out because we pay attention. Most people do not. (Look around, that much should be painfully obvious; heck, look at the San Mateo County Court). These exceedingly blissful people would have purchased their iPhones in April, May, and even June - as they have done for each of the last two years. And they would have been very happy with their iPhones, too. But, this year, with images and news of the next-gen iPhone splashed everywhere (TV, radio, online, etc.), who could have missed that a new iPhone was coming soon? Jon Stewart had his misplaced commentary on it, Rush Limbaugh explained it thoroughly to his 20 million or so listeners; the story of the next-gen iPhone with the front-facing camera, etc. was absolutely everywhere!”

         
  • Posted: 17 May 2010 10:04 AM #4

    Other than myself, I don’t know anyone who is aware of the leaked info. I had to advise two friends who were thinking of getting the 3GS model to wait. Most of the world isn’t aware of the geek world’s desires for more MP camera, longer battery life, front facing camera?the complaints we are all too familiar with from the blogisphere are barely perceived by the general iPhone buying public. We, and the folks who read and write the rumor blogs, are a tiny fraction of potential iPhone buyers/users.

         
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    Posted: 17 May 2010 10:08 AM #5

    24 million 4G phones to ship in 2010

    “Foxconn will ship 4.5 million units in the first half and 19.5 million units for the rest of 2010. Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 4G on June 7, 2010 during Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference,

    Digitimes link

    Impact on the bottom line ?

         
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    Posted: 17 May 2010 10:44 AM #6

    Tetrachloride - 17 May 2010 01:08 PM

    24 million 4G phones to ship in 2010

    “Foxconn will ship 4.5 million units in the first half and 19.5 million units for the rest of 2010. Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 4G on June 7, 2010 during Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference,

    Digitimes link

    Impact on the bottom line ?

    Hard to tell, it depends on what they do with the low end and Verizon.  Do they keep making a 3GS for $99, do we add in the 10M CDMA phones ordered.  Lots of things which could affect end user demand.  My quarterly numbers look like 9.114M, 11.051M, 12.232M so to me the order sounds about right assuming they keep building a 3GS for the low end.

         
  • Posted: 17 May 2010 05:26 PM #7

    willrob - 17 May 2010 01:04 PM

    Other than myself, I don’t know anyone who is aware of the leaked info. I had to advise two friends who were thinking of getting the 3GS model to wait. Most of the world isn’t aware of the geek world’s desires for more MP camera, longer battery life, front facing camera?the complaints we are all too familiar with from the blogisphere are barely perceived by the general iPhone buying public. We, and the folks who read and write the rumor blogs, are a tiny fraction of potential iPhone buyers/users.

    At least from anecdotal evidence, I would tend to agree with you. It’s just we’ve heard it said many times that this quarter is slower due to it being the ‘pre-release’ quarter. If we accept that the public doesn’t know this, then we need to rely on pure seasonality as the explanation vs product cycle and disregard that talk. It also could be that competing smart phones have had releases this quarter and this captures the attention of the sales people who are pushing ‘the latest and greatest’. Not too many sales people recommend coming back in a month to see the latest iPhone, they want you when your wallet is open.

    My bigger concern is the lack of iPhone rumor articles that I am counting on to trigger a pre-WWDC ‘hype rally’. Often the articles start talking about features that we won’t see for a year or two and getting the investing world exuberant on what will happen if the next iPhone contains certain amazing features right now. Pat’s reference to ‘iPay’ is a good example, but I sure haven’t seen many articles on such features lately. These hype articles lead to increased demand for the stock as the money doesn’t want to be left behind when an amazing new version is announced. They also lead to disappointment when reality hits after the event. But, at least we know the cycle well and can play accordingly.

    Of course, with iPad and future iPhone numbers rising every day, maybe we don’t need the pre-event rally. Or, maybe we’ll start seeing the WWDC articles any day, and one can build on the other!

         
  • Posted: 18 May 2010 03:48 AM #8

    adamthompson3232 - 18 May 2010 04:19 AM

    All I can say is “when will Gray Powell get the ax”? He clearly should be fired. What other low level engineer could have such a disastrous impact on sales at a company like Apple? I am sure he’s a nice guy but he is a Grade A idiot for losing that phone.

    Sorry, I can’t agree with that. The decision has to be Apple’s. Apple presumably believes he was not blameworthy in this.

    This wasn’t deliberate - which is a known big difference from the usual trigger for sacking. Phones need real-world testing. Do you think any employee is actually going to genuinely field test the next iPhone if doing so could cost him his job? And it’s far from clear this wasn’t actually stolen from his bag, where he believed it had safely been all along. But of course that would be his word against the one who sold it. The seller’s story that an unknown third party “finder” handed it to him for safe keeping (instead of leaving it behind the bar) when he left is strangely convenient.

    [ Edited: 18 May 2010 03:51 AM by sleepygeek ]      
  • Posted: 18 May 2010 03:55 AM #9

    I first heard about it on the music radio station and they never talk about tech news. It was on the local news and the front page of Yahoo.

    I think the most damaging blow is the heads up to all the other cell phone makers. It allows them to beat Apple to go public before June or at the very least give them a earlier head start in making their own version giving Apple less of an advantage. Whether someone who wants the iPhone 3GS or 4G is irrelevant because it is Apple’s sale. It could make Apple’s next earnings “less than expected” but losing a sale to another phone company is worse.

         
  • Posted: 18 May 2010 04:22 AM #10

    pats - 17 May 2010 01:44 PM
    Tetrachloride - 17 May 2010 01:08 PM

    24 million 4G phones to ship in 2010

    “Foxconn will ship 4.5 million units in the first half and 19.5 million units for the rest of 2010. Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 4G on June 7, 2010 during Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference,

    Digitimes link

    Impact on the bottom line ?

    Hard to tell, it depends on what they do with the low end and Verizon.  Do they keep making a 3GS for $99, do we add in the 10M CDMA phones ordered.  Lots of things which could affect end user demand.  My quarterly numbers look like 9.114M, 11.051M, 12.232M so to me the order sounds about right assuming they keep building a 3GS for the low end.

    I predict Apple is going to have NO TROUBLE beating analyst EPS #s.  Even if the new 4G iPhone is released in July instead of early June at the expected announcement during WWDC, Apple’s EPS for Q3 will be very, very solid.  If the 4G is released in the quantities rumored above in early June, Apple will report a blockbuster quarter.  ATT incentives on the current iPhone are clues they’re pushing harder to clear the channel in the wake of the leaked 4G news.

         
  • Posted: 18 May 2010 12:06 PM #11

    I don’t think that it will affect purchases by the people who follow Apple, because it is pretty much what is expected. It will have a larger impact on people who are considering buying their first iPhone, but who aren’t really aware that the current model is almost due for an upgrade. However, I’d guess that those numbers are rather modest, so I don’t anticipate a large impact. And the additional iPhone publicity may even boost sales once the new one does come out.

         
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    Posted: 18 May 2010 02:31 PM #12

    At Apple, there’s no time for, and no sense in, hand-wringing.  I think Apple will ramp up production big time, as long as capacity/supply allows, and go for a multi-million weekend launch.

    The leak is regrettable, for sure.  There was unprecedented “access” to the phone in advance of launch.  But the specifics that matter to consumers, beyond the front-facing camera, LED flash, interesting battery and maybe higher-res screen, aren’t known.

    We’ll never know the full extent of damage caused from competitors getting maybe a month plus advance peek at an inevitable iPhone teardown, though the teardown of the shipping iPhone might give some clue. 

    Crowding out the field with an early/mid June launch is the best countermeasure Apple can take.  Also, the competition is still shooting itself in the foot, what with things like the Evo 4G having the tired old $199 “after mail-in rebate” tripe (people won’t fail to notice the $299 upfront cost) combined with the $120/yr. mandatory 4G access charge.  Two dubious points for Sprint!

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    Posted: 20 May 2010 10:45 AM #13

    New supplier info rumors from Digitimes

    PCB makers Tripod Technology and Unimicron Technology are expected to see their profits increase significantly in the second half of 2010 buoyed by shipments of any-layer HDI boards for Apple’s iPhone 4G handsets, according to industry sources.

    The ASP (average selling price) of any-layer HDI boards is nearly twice as much as that of traditional HDI boards, the sources explained. Tripod and Unimicron both declined to comment on the sources’ claims.

    According to an estimate of industry sources, shipments of iPhone 4G handsets will total 3.5-4 million units in second-quarter 2010 before climbing to 8.5-9 million units in the third quarter. All shipments of iPhone 4G handsets will be built with any-layer HDI boards, the sources indicated.

         
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    Posted: 20 May 2010 01:39 PM #14

    The impact? I returned my new Samsung Convoy phone in anticipation of moving over to AT&T six months from now.

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    Posted: 22 May 2010 12:08 PM #15

    THIS STORY has little to do about the upcoming iPhone, but it speaks volumes about how the present iPhone is valued today.

    A survey amongst 4,000 customers from Tesco Mobile in the UK came up with the Top 100 inventions of all time. The wheel made it to No 1 but that’s probably due in part to the fact that it is so obvious and not so much that there was deep thought behind it because strangely enough the iPhone was voted No 8 on the list, making a smartphone more important than the flushing toilet.

    Even the internal combustion engine failed to outshine the importance of the iPhone - it came in at No 10. And it beat both the car and the camera. Hmm.

     


    :apple: