Impending Tech Boom ... likely to start in 2012

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    Posted: 27 August 2010 05:59 PM

    ... according to Yelnick.  He thinks demand for mobile computing devices is similar to what happened to radio during the Great Depression.  Read this for more details.

    ” ... Yet this story of booming gadgets and busting everything else rhymes with one of the hit products during the Great Depression: radio! ... I do not expect it in the near term. The SOX index of semiconductor activity has been rolling over, indicating perhaps a seasonal lag or maybe a longer cyclical drop.  When the next tech boom comes, it will show up first in chips, then devices, then software/services, then IPOs! ... Tech booms have tended to lead out of bad times ... The timing between these booms appears to be about 12 years from end to start:

    the transistor boomlet from 1962-66 was followed 12 years later in 1978 with the PC craze
    the PC craze ended in 1983 and the dot-com mania began 12 years later in 1995
    the dot-com fever broke in 2000, and 12 years later is 2012 ...”

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    Posted: 27 August 2010 06:41 PM #1

    I could not agree more.  Lying here by the pool in Maui the Hyatt is packed.  More and more people are on their iPhones and iPads.  The economy sucks but once we get out of the housing mess which I think will bottom in 2011 and stay there for about 3 years, the economy will start to really hit up in 2012 led by the tech boom and then transition into housing 2 years later.  Apple started this tech revolution with the iPhone and then iPad, but it can do it alone.  Patience my dear friends for in 2012 I see aapl at 500 or more as we move towards 1000 :-D

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2010 11:37 PM #2

    omacvi - 27 August 2010 09:41 PM

    I could not agree more.  Lying here by the pool in Maui the Hyatt is packed.  More and more people are on their iPhones and iPads.  The economy sucks but once we get out of the housing mess which I think will bottom in 2011 and stay there for about 3 years, the economy will start to really hit up in 2012 led by the tech boom and then transition into housing 2 years later.  Apple started this tech revolution with the iPhone and then iPad, but it can do it alone.  Patience my dear friends for in 2012 I see aapl at 500 or more as we move towards 1000 :-D

    Very cool place there, and I’m envious.  You seem to travel full time, between trading AAPL.  How do I sign up for your gig?

         
  • Posted: 30 August 2010 01:17 PM #3

    Radio had no subscription fees.  Mobile computing will spread like radio only if subscription fees are drastically reduced.  That will never happen as long as competition is restricted and competition will remain restricted as long as Congress (mostly the Republicans therein), the DoJ, and the FCC remain loyal lapdogs to their masters in the cable and telecoms industry.

    The FCC is trying now but too little too late.  For too many years under Michael Powell the FCC played Santa Claus to the cable and cell phone industries.  And even if the FCC tries to do something today, the defenders of the nation’s billionaires (a.k.a. Republicans in Congress) will block every effort to foster competition in the mobile subscription space.

    One more industry where we are doing everything to surrender our leadership position.  One more indicator that the U.S. is a nation in decline and that it’s purely our fault.

    [ Edited: 30 August 2010 01:24 PM by aardman ]      
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    Posted: 30 August 2010 01:21 PM #4

    Yah, yah, mobile computing, big whoop. It’s 2010! Where’s the FLYING CAR my 1960’s comics and sci-fi movies promised me?

    wink

         
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    Posted: 30 August 2010 03:39 PM #5

    cbsofla - 30 August 2010 04:21 PM

    Yah, yah, mobile computing, big whoop. It’s 2010! Where’s the FLYING CAR my 1960’s comics and sci-fi movies promised me?

    ‘60s comics? Sounds like we about the same age smile

    Flying cars were in the ‘20s movie Metropolis, one of my favorite films. Well they looked like airplanes of the period, but they were flying in the canyons of the city. It was a kind of futuristic movie that also showed video telephones.

    The copy I have on DVD is incomplete, they thought that the parts of the original were lost. However, recently they found the missing footage in a vault and reissued the complete movie on DVD/BlueRay, you can see the trailer and some scenes at there (warning Flash website.)

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    Posted: 31 August 2010 01:04 AM #6

    Mace - 27 August 2010 08:59 PM

    ... according to Yelnick.  ..the PC craze ended in 1983..”

    Wait!  What?  The PC craze ended the year before the Mac came out?  It didn’t really start until the advent of the GUI, ie the Mac.

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  • Posted: 31 August 2010 06:54 AM #7

    Radio had no subscription fees.


    Probably only the infancy of the technology. It’s that whole two way radio thing.

         
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    Posted: 31 August 2010 04:30 PM #8

    iJack - 31 August 2010 04:04 AM
    Mace - 27 August 2010 08:59 PM

    ... according to Yelnick.  ..the PC craze ended in 1983..”

    Wait!  What?  The PC craze ended the year before the Mac came out?  It didn’t really start until the advent of the GUI, ie the Mac.

    The timeframe actually corresponds with some of the first personal computers, when Apple Computer changed the world the first time. The Apple I came out in 1976 followed by the Apple II in 1977, and the Apple II+ was produced until 1983 when the Apple IIe came out. A glorious time…

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