Google VS Apple

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    Posted: 28 April 2011 12:27 PM #61

    adamthompson3232 - 28 April 2011 03:22 PM
    omacvi - 28 April 2011 03:15 PM

    The Android OS lost ground for the first time since Q2 2009, falling to 50 percent of smartphone unit sales in Q1 2011 compared to 53 percent in the prior quarter. Apple iOS share rose 9 percentage points to comprise 28 percent of smartphone unit sales. Research In Motion?s BlackBerry OS also lost ground, falling 5 points, to 14 percent.


    This is playing out like RIMM in 2008.  3 years from now or sooner the landscape will change drastically for Android.

    The impact the iPhone will have on Android phones will start slowly and under the radar.  But as Apple adds more carriers and introduces better and better iPhones, it will be more clear as the iPad really takes off next year that iOS will swallow Android for lunch in two short years.

    While I think iOs has a tone of head room both in phones and tablets (and iPod Touch and who knows what else is still to come) I don’t think Android is going anywhere anytime soon. There will not be one winner in mobile. Apple can’t even come close to serving the whole market even if everyone on Earth decided to buy an iPhone. Maybe in a few years they’ll be able to produce 200M phones per year but that will still be a minority of all annual phone sales. Android will proliferate and Apple will too. I just wonder who else will still be around and what new players will emerge.

    I agree.  I see Windows 7 and webOS playing an important part.  However Android’s huge run up will slow down drastically and we will see iPhone’s market share of smart phone go up over 40% in my view.  Only then when WS sees that Android is not the threat it thought it was in 2010 and 2011 will aapl be rewarded with a higher p/e.

         
  • Posted: 28 April 2011 12:27 PM #62

    omacvi - 28 April 2011 03:15 PM

    This is playing out like RIMM in 2008.  3 years from now or sooner the landscape will change drastically for Android.

    The impact the iPhone will have on Android phones will start slowly and under the radar.  But as Apple adds more carriers and introduces better and better iPhones, it will be more clear as the iPad really takes off next year that iOS will swallow Android for lunch in two short years.

    If you mean market share, I don’t see this happening.  Android has certain advantages that will not go away:

    1. Choice - Android can be all things to all people.  This creates market share.

    2. Distribution - Samsung+LG+Motorola+HTC+many others can reach more consumer touch points than Apple can on its own

    3. Price - Given the number of Android competitors, someone and likely multiple players will be forced to compete the good old fashioned way.  On price.  Cheap + good enough = lots of customers that Apple is never going to reach

         
  • Posted: 28 April 2011 01:15 PM #63

    omacvi - 28 April 2011 03:27 PM

    I see Windows 7 and webOS playing an important part.

    Not so sure about that. There were a couple of articles this week indicating LESSENING developer interest in those platforms. There’s still a lot of twists and turns on the road ahead, but not everybody is going to be able to accumulate enough critical mass to attract the necessary developers to sustain their platform. Somebody’s going to get left out.

    [ Edited: 29 April 2011 08:07 AM by FalKirk ]      
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    Posted: 29 April 2011 02:48 AM #64

    Lstream - 28 April 2011 03:27 PM
    omacvi - 28 April 2011 03:15 PM

    This is playing out like RIMM in 2008.  3 years from now or sooner the landscape will change drastically for Android.
    The impact the iPhone will have on Android phones will start slowly and under the radar.  But as Apple adds more carriers and introduces better and better iPhones, it will be more clear as the iPad really takes off next year that iOS will swallow Android for lunch in two short years.

    If you mean market share, I don’t see this happening.  Android has certain advantages that will not go away:
    1. Choice - Android can be all things to all people.  This creates market share.

    2. Distribution - Samsung+LG+Motorola+HTC+many others can reach more consumer touch points than Apple can on its own

    3. Price - Given the number of Android competitors, someone and likely multiple players will be forced to compete the good old fashioned way.  On price.  Cheap + good enough = lots of customers that Apple is never going to reach

    Here are some interesting numbers.  We are falling into the trap of using statistics that give a false premise of the lay of the land.

    http://www.loopinsight.com/2011/04/28/the-truth-about-android-vs-iphone-market-share/

    Same thing was said about the blackberry market at one point.  They will survive because they are sold by more carriers in more models at cheaper prices.

         
  • Posted: 29 April 2011 09:17 AM #65

    Lstream - 28 April 2011 03:27 PM

    If you mean market share, I don’t see this happening.  Android has certain advantages that will not go away:

    1. Choice - Android can be all things to all people.  This creates market share.

    Here’s the thing. In marketing, more choice means less sales. Actually, it’s a little more nuanced than that but I don’t think this is the place to go into a discussion of the paradox of choice. Anyway, to keep this short, let me just say that I disagree with the suggestion that “choice creates market share”.

    Lstream - 28 April 2011 03:27 PM

    2. Distribution - Samsung+LG+Motorola+HTC+many others can reach more consumer touch points than Apple can on its own.

    Agreed. Actually, my focus has been more on manufacturing capacity. For the longest time the iPhone 4 and now the iPad was selling as fast as they could be made. Apple just couldn’t make them fast enough. Android products weren’t outselling iOS products, they were simply out manufacturing them. In this rapidly growing market, out manufacturing was the same as out selling.

    Lstream - 28 April 2011 03:27 PM

    3. Price - Given the number of Android competitors, someone and likely multiple players will be forced to compete the good old fashioned way.  On price.  Cheap + good enough = lots of customers that Apple is never going to reach

    Price is simply one component of value. If you want to see a market where price didn’t matter much, look at MP3’s. The iPod was the premium product yet its value drove the lessor priced products out of the market.

         
  • Posted: 29 April 2011 09:51 AM #66

    I think one has to be careful of analogies like the RIMM one mentioned here.  Dramatic market share loss occurs due to some form of catalyst.  In the case of RIMM, they stubbornly hung on to the paradigm that brought them success in the first place.  By doing so they have missed two paradigm shifts in Smartphones:

    1. The app revolution.  Even today Balsillie derides this is “app tonnage”

    2. The importance of multi-touch.  They have been blind-sided by the fact that in the mass market UI trumps all.

    Side-note to Falkirk on the iPod analogy.  I don’t think it is applicable here, because an iPod competitor NEVER had traction.  Android has credible traction. 

    So, before we simply assume that Android will meet the same fate as RIMM, we must identify the catalyst that will lead to that fate.  The fact of the matter is that Android is seen by many as “good enough” in both app coverage and UI.  Google has done a decent job of copying Apple and getting to close enough.  The same cannot be said for RIMM.

    I think that there are potential threats to Android, but none of them are acute enough yet to lead Android to the same fate as RIMM.

    1. Sudden loss of developer support due to fragmentation.  Well, there are rumblings and the odd developer holdout, but I think that the general rule for most developers right now, is that they must support both iOS and Android.

    2. A major loss on the IP patent front.  One that is severe enough for Android partners to switch OS’s.

    3. A tablet flop that never gets repaired.  Maybe this spills over to loss of Smartphone market share, but I am not convinced of this linkage.

    So what is the catalyst that will lead to Android having its lunch eaten in the next two years?  Without identifying that mechanism, the argument sounds a lot like the one the FUDittes are using to predict the doom of iOS.  Paraphrased as “Apple is making all the same mistakes they made vs Microsoft - Android is the new Windows and iOS is doomed”

    So bottom line, I think that the most likely scenario is that both Android and iOS will thrive.

         
  • Posted: 29 April 2011 12:24 PM #67

    Lstream - 29 April 2011 12:51 PM

    Side-note to Falkirk on the iPod analogy.  I don’t think it is applicable here, because an iPod competitor NEVER had traction.  Android has credible traction.

    I was using the MP3 market as an example, not an analogy. There’s a big difference. An analogy suggests that A is going to be like B. You made a statement about price that I thought was overly broad. I provided a counter-example. You said “A is true.” I said “Here’s an example where A wasn’t true.

    We’re not really disagreeing. Just a point of clarification.

         
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    Posted: 29 April 2011 12:50 PM #68

    Lstream - 29 April 2011 12:51 PM

    So bottom line, I think that the most likely scenario is that both Android and iOS will thrive.

    Yes. But Apple’s bottom line will benefit much more than Google’s.

         
  • Posted: 29 April 2011 12:58 PM #69

    Lstream - 29 April 2011 12:51 PM

    I think one has to be careful of analogies like the RIMM one mentioned here.  Dramatic market share loss occurs due to some form of catalyst.  In the case of RIMM, they stubbornly hung on to the paradigm that brought them success in the first place.  By doing so they have missed two paradigm shifts in Smartphones:

    1. The app revolution.  Even today Balsillie derides this is “app tonnage”

    2. The importance of multi-touch.  They have been blind-sided by the fact that in the mass market UI trumps all.

    Side-note to Falkirk on the iPod analogy.  I don’t think it is applicable here, because an iPod competitor NEVER had traction.  Android has credible traction. 

    So, before we simply assume that Android will meet the same fate as RIMM, we must identify the catalyst that will lead to that fate.  The fact of the matter is that Android is seen by many as “good enough” in both app coverage and UI.  Google has done a decent job of copying Apple and getting to close enough.  The same cannot be said for RIMM.

    I think that there are potential threats to Android, but none of them are acute enough yet to lead Android to the same fate as RIMM.

    1. Sudden loss of developer support due to fragmentation.  Well, there are rumblings and the odd developer holdout, but I think that the general rule for most developers right now, is that they must support both iOS and Android.

    2. A major loss on the IP patent front.  One that is severe enough for Android partners to switch OS’s.

    3. A tablet flop that never gets repaired.  Maybe this spills over to loss of Smartphone market share, but I am not convinced of this linkage.

    So what is the catalyst that will lead to Android having its lunch eaten in the next two years?  Without identifying that mechanism, the argument sounds a lot like the one the FUDittes are using to predict the doom of iOS.  Paraphrased as “Apple is making all the same mistakes they made vs Microsoft - Android is the new Windows and iOS is doomed”

    So bottom line, I think that the most likely scenario is that both Android and iOS will thrive.

    As I see it, the ultimate success of Android depends on three factors:

    Bottom line, it must make money for Google.  It is not yet clear that this is happening or will happen.

    It must make money for the cell phone manufacturers and the carriers.  So far most of the cell phone manufacturers are struggling, and if this situation doesn’t change they will just stop making them.  The carriers are doing OK, but they do make more money on the iPhone.  I suspect that in the end the carriers will only support low-end phones where Apple does not choose to compete.

    Finally, it must make money for the support system, especially the developers.  No developers.no apps.  No Apps and all you have is a dumb phone.  BTW, the large number of different Android phones makes it difficult for developers, so selected models (companies?) may vanish.

    I believe there is a place for Android and it will be there a long time, but I question whether Google will stay with it indefinitely.  They could always sell it.

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  • Posted: 29 April 2011 02:15 PM #70

    Drew Bear - 29 April 2011 03:50 PM
    Lstream - 29 April 2011 12:51 PM

    So bottom line, I think that the most likely scenario is that both Android and iOS will thrive.

    Yes. But Apple’s bottom line will benefit much more than Google’s.

    This article is a year old, but it claims that Apple makes 35% of the PC profits from only 7% PC market share. The numbers in the phone space are even more dramatic. With 4% total market share of the mobile phone industry, iPhone is gobbling up over 50% of the profits.

    Right now the iPhone controls about 30% of the smartphone market share. Despite the astronomical growth of Android, the iPhone continues to maintain market share meaning that Android’s growth is coming out of the hides of Palm, Windows Mobile, Nokia, Blackberry, Windows Phone 7 and others. If Apple can sustain 35% profit share with 7% market share and 50% profit share with 5% market share, what profit share will they have in the smart phone market with 30% market share? Considering Android’s weird corporate set up, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that Apple may garner between 50% and 80% of the industry’s profits.

    And I’m not conceding 30% market share either. But I’ll save that argument for another day.

    If Android* ends up with 70% market share and 30% profit share while iOS ends up with 30% market share and 70% profit share, who would you declare the winner of the great smart phone wars?

    *EDIT: Oh, my bad. Android is an operating system. I’m not suggesting that Google will pull in 30% of the profits. It was only a hypothetical to highlight the difference between winning profit share and market share.

    [ Edited: 29 April 2011 03:21 PM by FalKirk ]      
  • Posted: 29 April 2011 02:25 PM #71

    If Android ends up with 70% market share and 30% profit share while iOS ends up with 30% market share and 70% profit share, who would you declare the winner of the great smart phone wars?

    I do not see that as a phone wars. Google’s Android strategy is mainly defensive and aims to protect its search/add business whereas Apple’s is offensive and aims at maximizing its profit share of the telecom business.

    In a way Android could be seen as a desperate move knowing that the telecom provider and Apple would not let Google do its business as Microsoft usual.

         
  • Posted: 01 May 2011 06:40 AM #72

    Lstream - 29 April 2011 12:51 PM

    I think that the general rule for most developers right now, is that they must support both iOS and Android.

    Not entirely convinced by this I know several developers that are not going Android because people aren’t spending money there…

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  • Posted: 01 May 2011 08:55 AM #73

    Succession is a useful concept here. Opportunistic species typically overwhelm a new, empty ecosystem, but rarely end up dominating it. I’m not worried by any amount of rapid growth in Android.

    It will be much more interesting to see if at end of life / contract renewal,  Android replaces iPhone more or less than iPhone replaces Android.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2011 11:40 PM #74

    Apple has been fairly quiet in its moves on Google.  iOS speaks for itself.  Android claws for attention.

    With 1 dominant player in the search market, and 2 scratchers (Bing and Facebook), I see Google Search as vulnerable. 

    What if a new search engine didn’t sell detailed customer info to 3rd parties ?  Or even what if there was no advertising at all ?    MobileMe members could use the search engine for free ?!?

         
  • Posted: 04 May 2011 12:45 AM #75

    omacvi - 16 April 2011 09:54 PM

    Let’s discuss google and Apple now that google released their earnings.

    Here is an article to get us started.  Please note the last paragraph.  It sheds light on why their shares got whacked.

    http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Can-iPhone-do-better-Android-activations-are-315M-per-quarter/1302835052

    I’ve posted this on another thread, but it deals entirely with the title of this thread.  Its an excellent read.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/may/02/is-apple-really-doomed

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