McNamee Says Apple Stock `Best Days Are Behind It’

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    Posted: 17 March 2012 07:08 PM #16

    Well, I must say that McNamee DID make that distinction.

    But the stock thing is ridiculous.  Any company listed on a stock exchange for more than 5-10 years, I bet a lot of them have had their best days behind them.  And so many of them are still great stocks to invest in?  How can this be??!?! raspberry

    As Mercel set the tone, glib.  AAPL’s been through the fire and earned it.  It’s pricing strongly resists extended downwaves because of its bedrock financials and astronomical growth and growth prospects.  “Best days” are relative, particularly if you’re a higher-risk leverage investor/trader. 

    And what if you were in on NFLX starting at $200 when some folks were undoubtedly saying the best days of the stock were ahead of it? 

    Extreme example, but I think the point is sufficiently made.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 28 March 2012 01:45 PM #17

    Way back on March 15, almost 9 trading days ago, Roger spoke.

    The price was $585.

    Hmm.

    Some of us wait for that sale announcement to Buffett.

         
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    Posted: 28 March 2012 10:23 PM #18

    OK, now I’m starting to understand the phrase “talking his book”:

    http://go.bloomberg.com/tech-blog/2012-03-28-zuckerberg-better-than-even-jobs-and-gates-says-roger-mcnamee/

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 29 March 2012 01:18 AM #19

    Mav - 29 March 2012 01:23 AM

    OK, now I’m starting to understand the phrase “talking his book”:

    http://go.bloomberg.com/tech-blog/2012-03-28-zuckerberg-better-than-even-jobs-and-gates-says-roger-mcnamee/

    Roger McNamee also said the world would be using Palm Pre’s He’s wrong here too.  His mad scientist persona is wearing thin, as much from his misses as his hyperbole w/Zuckerberg.

         
  • Posted: 29 March 2012 04:50 AM #20

    Lstream - 16 March 2012 05:03 AM

    This is an interesting interview for me,  as Rogers’s “best days” comment mirrors something I have started to feel as a result of this explosive run.  I have held this stock since 2002, and my original investment is up 78x. I have never sold, or even saw the horizon out there that says I should start to consider selling some of my holdings.

    Now I am starting to feel that for me at least that we have now entered the “beginning of the end” phase. What is the realistic best case upside from here?  Another 2x or 3x, before almost the entire investment community has a piece of Apple, or they miss a platform discontinuity?  Then what happens?

    For these past 10 years, I thought the investment had two great things working for it. The first was and still is being the best managed tech company in the world. Whoever is in second place is so far in the rear view mirror that I can’t even name them. This piece is still intact.

    Ironically, the second piece was that Apple was unloved and somewhat of a secret.  I always felt that at some point “everyone” was finally going to get the story. And when that happened the stock would finally get its just rewards.  I think we have hit that point in time. Even the most clueless and skeptical have come to realize what a special story Apple is.  Our little secret is now out in full daylight for the entire world to see. My strategy was to never even think of selling while a substantial part of the investing world thought Apple was a fluke or doomed in the short term.  We are now witnessing the impact of Apple getting the respect it deserves.  But it also means that my second reason for never selling is entering the end game phase.

    The “just rewards” are just getting started, but I think we might be shocked at how fast we could rocket to fair value now.  When we get there, we become way more vulnerable to a set back or disappointment, because then “everyone” gets disappointed, not just the true zealots. 

    So I am now thinking that in the next two years Apple will reach the point of needing to be treated like a more traditional investment, rather than the special one that some day was going to be the home run.  None if this means I am thinking of selling anything now. I think we have a reasonably easing ride to $1000 per share in front of us.  But when that time comes I think it could very well be the time to take quite a bit of money off the table.

    The strange part to all of this, is that it gives me mixed emotions. If we really do get to the $1000 mark, then the investment will have far exceeded anything I had a reasonable right to expect.  Surely a once in a lifetime event. But now that I am starting to sniff out the end game, it make me realize what a large part of my life this investment has become.  It feels odd that soon it could become “just” a good investment worthy of a much smaller part of my portfolio.

    I guess that I can always hope that when we hit $1000, that it is still stupidly cheap. Well as stupidly cheap that a trillion dollar market cap can be I guess.

    Very well said, completely agree. 2X-3X appreciation in AAPL may be large sum in terms of absolute amount of capital, the yield might not be attractive to venture capital. After all, I can imagine McNamee’s investment in Facebook probably has tens to hundreds folds of return.

    However, I believe even when AAPL’s appreciation slows, we can still get decent returns by trading options.

         
  • Posted: 29 March 2012 05:04 AM #21

    On another thought, based on McNamee’s logic, Facebook’s best days are also behind us. At a valuation of 100B, can it really grow to 300B, 50% larger than Google now? I doubt it.
    I am sure those venture capital will jump off Facebook as fast as they can.

         
  • Posted: 18 September 2012 09:31 PM #22

    Roger McNamee stated Apple’s shares best days were over way back on March 14 this year

    March 14 - $589.58

    Sept 18 - $701.91

    McNamee didn’t really mention this share price idea in today’s Bloomberg interview. Best to try to forget it since the increase amounts to 19% to date.

    I wonder if he sold his Apple holdings to Buffett yet?

    Roger did have some explanting to do on the HTML5 outlook of his given Zuckerberg admitting that it was Facebook’s biggest mistake. That was right at the end of the video.

    Willow Bay, the interviewer, did have trouble swallowing his statement on his calling some of Apple’s monopolist actions/practices and put in a disclaimer that her husband sits on the Apple board of directors. It was another opportunity for him to withdraw the remarks which he failed to do.

    Video
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/mcnamee-i-think-apple-is-most-amazing-i-ve-seen-FwqDoEHTTBu7Mu~Zyky~hg.html