AAPL Chart Talk

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    Posted: 13 April 2012 09:23 PM #61

    Mace - 13 April 2012 11:50 PM
    lovemyipad - 13 April 2012 10:50 PM

    Scott Redler - Watching AAPL to Gauge the Market

    He is a day trader?  How about the possible larger H&S?  Left shoulder $621.45, Head $644 and Neckline $597.94.

    Mace, yes, he’s a professional trader, which I take to mean mostly day trading, with maybe some swing trading.

    And yes, I’ve seen that larger H&S possibility…blah…trying to ignore it.  I often have trouble accepting a change in trend—I keep thinking it’s a fake out.

    The other pattern I wonder if I’m properly identifying or if it’s wishful thinking: ascending triangles??  See next post with 2H chart from around 3/19 to now.

    [ Edited: 13 April 2012 10:15 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 13 April 2012 10:11 PM #62

    AAPL TWO-HOUR CHART (with my notes):



    From Weekend Updates:

    lovemyipad - 13 April 2012 09:09 PM

    I’m torn on which way I think the wind’s blowing, but we’ll find out soon enough.  Next week will be interesting.

    Random thoughts:

    A pre-earnings shakeout doesn’t surprise me.  I am, however, surprised we didn’t take back 610.  Closing TWO strikes below the highest OI for puts marks a “change.”  Additionally, this is the first time since DEC’11 that we’ve closed below SMA-20 on the daily chart.  Objectively, this makes it official: the short-term trend is now DOWN until proven otherwise.

    The first step in providing some “otherwise” evidence: we need to see a close above SMA-20 on the daily, around 613-ish. 

    We’re due for an oversold bounce, and hopefully we see a STRONG one on Monday.

         
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    Posted: 13 April 2012 10:14 PM #63

    From EW thread:

    Mace - 13 April 2012 04:22 PM

    Reckoning time:

    a.  If break below $597.94 (soon or after rebounding towards $621.45), minimum target is $550/ 50-day EMA/SMA.  If $550 can’t hold, could go as low as $480s.  Anything lower, panic.

    b.  If recapture $621.45, good chance to recapture $644, then should rally to near $700.

    I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating: Mace is DAMN good at this. smile

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 11:01 PM #64

    lovemyipad - 14 April 2012 12:23 AM
    Mace - 13 April 2012 11:50 PM
    lovemyipad - 13 April 2012 10:50 PM

    Scott Redler - Watching AAPL to Gauge the Market

    He is a day trader?  How about the possible larger H&S?  Left shoulder $621.45, Head $644 and Neckline $597.94.

    Mace, yes, he’s a professional trader, which I take to mean mostly day trading, with maybe some swing trading.

    And yes, I’ve seen that larger H&S possibility…blah…trying to ignore it.  I often have trouble accepting a change in trend—I keep thinking it’s a fake out.

    The other pattern I wonder if I’m properly identifying or if it’s wishful thinking: ascending triangles??  See next post with 2H chart from around 3/19 to now.

    Two questions if you don’t mind:
    1) what’s the target of the potential H&S? Plz don’t tell me the 50 day….

    2) what about the ascending triangle? I tried reading the chart ref the triangle but had no clue smile

    Bought some for the oversold bounce ($5 to early - so far :(
    Thxs

    [ Edited: 13 April 2012 11:10 PM by Shoc13 ]      
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 11:19 PM #65

    Cobra’s take

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/chartbook/260183775;

         
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    Posted: 13 April 2012 11:33 PM #66

    Shoc13 - 14 April 2012 02:01 AM

    Two questions if you don’t mind:
    1) what’s the target of the potential H&S? Plz don’t tell me the 50 day….

    2) what about the ascending triangle? I tried reading the chart ref the triangle but had no clue smile

    1) RE: H&S...  Ummmm…sit down…a tiny bit lower than the current daily SMA-50 (which is 556-ish).  Formula for measured move = head - neckline = 644 - 597.94 = 46.06.  Formula for target = neckline - measured move = 597.94 - 46.06 = 551.88

    2) Apologies for my crooked lines, but take a look at this chart for the pattern I originally thought might be ascending triangles, now wonder if it’s rising wedge reversal:

    [ Edited: 13 April 2012 11:51 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 14 April 2012 08:29 AM #67

    lovemyipad - 14 April 2012 02:33 AM
    Shoc13 - 14 April 2012 02:01 AM

    Two questions if you don’t mind:
    1) what’s the target of the potential H&S? Plz don’t tell me the 50 day….

    2) what about the ascending triangle? I tried reading the chart ref the triangle but had no clue smile

    1) RE: H&S...  Ummmm…sit down…a tiny bit lower than the current daily SMA-50 (which is 556-ish).  Formula for measured move = head - neckline = 644 - 597.94 = 46.06.  Formula for target = neckline - measured move = 597.94 - 46.06 = 551.88

    2) Apologies for my crooked lines, but take a look at this chart for the pattern I originally thought might be ascending triangles, now wonder if it’s rising wedge reversal:

    Let’s hope it’s an ascending triangle - but the 551.88 number is spooking me a bit

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 12:15 PM #68

    Phoebear611 - 14 April 2012 11:29 AM

    Let’s hope it’s an ascending triangle - but the 551.88 number is spooking me a bit

    It spooks me only because I would want to deploy more capital than I currently have in reserve, which makes me reassess the allocation of capital currently tied up.  Blah.  All roads lead back to constantly recalibrating to manage upside and downside risk.

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 12:24 PM #69

    Shoc13 - 14 April 2012 02:19 AM

    Cobra’s take

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/chartbook/260183775;

    So it looks like Cobra sort of collaborates Mace’s pessimistic call, namely bounce up (Mace -621 / Cobra - 615), then a big drop.

    I’m voting for Mace’s happy call.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 12:31 PM #70

    It’s all riding on that 621 area…  On that last chart (2H), it’s around the bearish cross region (see lower blue star).

    [ Edited: 14 April 2012 12:34 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 01:04 PM #71

    lovemyipad - 14 April 2012 03:31 PM

    It’s all riding on that 621 area…  On that last chart (2H), it’s around the bearish cross region (see lower blue star).

    So leading into that is when I will start to unload the calls I have and/or start hedging by selling other strike price calls.

    Thanks for all your “hand-holding” during this time, Ms. IPad. It helps to quell the anxiety.  In the end, we’ll be okay, and in the words of my neighbor The Boss (Bruce Springsteen) here in NJ, “...someday we’ll look back and it will all seem funny” (from Rosalita).

    [ Edited: 14 April 2012 01:54 PM by rutgersguy92 ]      
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 02:50 PM #72

    Love - Thanks again for the charts.  Your analysis make technicals something even a dummy like me can understand. smile

    I always look forward to them.

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  • Posted: 14 April 2012 05:18 PM #73

    iPad -my apologies - learning as I go and am a bit dense here.  Is Mace’s outlook that we get to either 615 or 621?  And then we drop? And is the measured drop to 551? 
    And all of this price action happens before earnings?...and what about earnings news - how does that work into the whole thing….damn I’m confused.  I’m trying to map it out to figure out my game plan but right now my map looks like and old buried treasure map….and you are playing with a GPS.  Can you explain it a bit clearer or am I getting the gist?

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 05:44 PM #74

    Phoebear611 - 14 April 2012 08:18 PM

    iPad -my apologies - learning as I go and am a bit dense here.  Is Mace’s outlook that we get to either 615 or 621?  And then we drop? And is the measured drop to 551? 
    And all of this price action happens before earnings?...and what about earnings news - how does that work into the whole thing….damn I’m confused.  I’m trying to map it out to figure out my game plan but right now my map looks like and old buried treasure map….and you are playing with a GPS.  Can you explain it a bit clearer or am I getting the gist?

    Phoebes,

    Bare bones: it’s IF/THEN logic.  Pare it down to those building blocks and see if that makes sense…

    Because I never know what the market is going to do next, I rely on IF/THEN logic with trading.  If “this” outcome happens, then look for “that” to follow.  Example: if we break through one level of resistance, then expect to rise further to test the next level of resistance.  In this manner, I know my gameplan; and I’m as ready as possible for *whatever* the market decides.

    So here’s my rephrasing of Mace’s IF/THEN logic (with which I concur):

    1) IF we decisively break below 597.94, THEN we’re opening the door to further declines, possibly as far as 550.  Rationale: If bulls fail to defend a level they previously conquered, then bears have gained power and taken over the lead.

    2) IF we decisively break above 621, THEN we’re opening the door to further increases.  Rationale: If bears fail to defend a level they just recently conquered, then bulls have reclaimed their power and taken back the lead.

    One of these two levels is going to break…it’s a question of which *decisively* breaks first…get above and STAY above…which may take some back and forth…  Monday we’ll find out which team won the coin toss and gets the ball first.  Are bulls on offense or defense?

    Make sense?

     

    EDIT: And, yes, AAPL is more than capable of moving 50+ points in either—even both—directions before earnings.  After earnings…depends on how much (and what direction) we moved before earnings AND how big (and what direction) the “surprise.”

    [ Edited: 14 April 2012 06:02 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 05:51 PM #75

    Here’s how I look at it (though I know just a little more about EW and technicals than a typical 5-year-old LOL)

    If you want to use EW as any kind of signpost, think in terms of AFTER earnings, NOT before.  And really, it’ll just be another way of explaining how the market could go depending on an earnings hit or an earnings miss.  With Apple it’s not likely to be somewhere in the middle, or the “confusion leading to disappointment” that was Google (“Siri, remind me next earnings to NEVER go OTM with calls or puts beyond like 5 bucks.”  Bad Mav!  Bad!).

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