Weekend Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 13 July 2012 10:12 PM #16

    Maybe August 6th then?  :-D

         
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    Posted: 13 July 2012 10:18 PM #17

    Dream on, Mercel.

    Jim’s rumor credentials are untouchable until proven otherwise.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 13 July 2012 10:29 PM #18

    Mav - 14 July 2012 01:18 AM

    Dream on, Mercel.

    Jim’s rumor credentials are untouchable until proven otherwise.

    Agreed. I’m kidding about August 6th.  Mmmm…August 5th then?  LOL

         
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    Posted: 13 July 2012 10:39 PM #19

    15 years ago this week: Amelio out, opening the door for Jobs’ Second Act.

    15 Years Ago: Amelio Out. Apple fans will know that July 9 was an important anniversary for the company. That was the day 15 years ago that Apple announced that Gil Amelio was stepping down as CEO, paving the way for the return of Steve Jobs to lead the company (though he was interim CEO for more than two years years before making it official in Jan. 2000.) In a bit of nostalgia, I dug up the original press release announcing what has turned out to be a pivotal moment in Apple?s history ? and the official start of its unprecedented turnaround under Jobs. Note: those were the days when it was still called Apple Computer Inc.

    Interesting piece, after wading through some Ballmer/Kardashian nonsense. I still remember my glee when I heard Jobs was returning, already being an AAPL shareholder…

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  • Posted: 14 July 2012 12:07 AM #20

    Mav - 14 July 2012 01:06 AM

    Hah!  BOOM goes the Dalrymple!

    http://www.loopinsight.com/

    Told ya he’d comment.  And I’d bet a virtual GOLD BRICK (looking mouse) he’s right, as he has been since he’s been commenting on these rumors.

    Mav, does this mean you believe in the Aug. date for the new iPhone?  Thanks.

         
  • Posted: 14 July 2012 12:09 AM #21

    Apple II+ - 14 July 2012 12:47 AM

    New iPhone? iPad Mini? More?

    We are just getting started. — Tim Cook, March 7, 2012

    Kind of weird how similar this is to one of the main visuals in 2001: Space Odyssey.

    http://www.google.com/search?q=2001+space+odyssey&um=1&hl=en&safe=off&client=safari&tbo=d&biw=768&bih=928&tbm=isch&tbs=simg:CAESEgni36C_1CBuPJCEIOHI43_1zZqw#

    And actually TC’s background visual is even closer.

    http://www.google.com/search?q=2012+theres+a+lot+to+look+forward+to&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=aeIAULbcKarn0QHUqozUBw&biw=768&bih=928&sei=bOIAUP2NH-Xo0gGe0d2iBw

    Probably just a coincidence…

         
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    Posted: 14 July 2012 01:13 AM #22

    JDSoCal - 13 July 2012 06:21 PM
    Phoebear611 - 13 July 2012 04:30 PM

    Where’s JD? He’s called it correctly 3 weeks in a row.  Ah…he must be teaching.  Maybe he’ll be back soon.

    More like sleeping in today. No surprise we are back above 600, but pain range suggests a close below 605, and it had better happen soon, otherwise we have a small moral victory over EO’s…

    The close was under 605, but the OI range was up to 610, no? 610 had the highest OI.

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  • Posted: 14 July 2012 01:32 PM #23

    Here’s something to look forward to:  Potential AAPL price targets if we get some decent P/E’s post-FQ3 2012 earnings.  Apple had a P/E of 18 prior to FQ2 2012 earnings and with an iPhone announcement during FQ4 2012, we may get it again.  Nonetheless, I’m using P/E ranges of 15-17 because anything less is unreasonable with Apple’s growth potential and unrecognized cash in its current valuation. 

    [ Edited: 14 July 2012 01:40 PM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 14 July 2012 01:37 PM #24

    And for FQ4 2012 earnings, iPhone 5 will have been released, along with other surprises Apple has planned.  I’m going conservative on the EPS for FQ4 2012, assuming a late Sept. iPhone 5 launch (I believe the timing will be early to mid-September, but the EPS estimate below does not reflect this).

    [ Edited: 14 July 2012 07:02 PM by ByeTMO ]      
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    Posted: 14 July 2012 04:50 PM #25

    Mercel - 14 July 2012 04:37 PM

    And for FQ4 2012 earnings, iPhone 5 will have been released, along with other surprises Apple has planned.  I’m going conservative on the EPS for FQ4 2012, assuming a late Sept. iPhone 5 launch (I believe the timing will be early to mid-September, but the EPS estimate below does not reflect this).

    Your Q4 earnings estimates look reasonable given a ~month of ip5 sales. My WAG is that Apple will “deliver” ip5 no later than Sep 15 to the extent needed to juice YOY earnings per your estimates.

    JMO, but I’m a bit more cautious re the share price. We have to see how the macro scene plays out this summer. There’s been a fair bit of recession chatter recently and it behoves us all to at least be on the lookout for those headwinds. My Debby Downer radar indicates roughly 50:50 chance of material macro headwinds.  :oh:

    cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 14 July 2012 05:36 PM #26

    I can’t bring myself to forecast Q4 2012 yet without iPad sales growth data.  When I ran my target prices, which are more of a theoretical exercise for later quarters by such picking an EPS growth rate, I came up with $50.34 ttm EPS by Q4 2012.  The $11.90 EPS I plugged in represents a bit less than 70% YOY growth.

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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 14 July 2012 05:58 PM #27

    I am very much a newbie in all ways relating to shares and knowledge.  I am one of the folks Red described recently as having gotten in during the low 600 range before/after April earnings.  I have been following all of the intrigue and info on this board daily since then.  After I kind of freaked out and realized I bought in way too high (better late than never?)  I then watched and waited and bought some more shares in the mid 500’s-580’s. 

    I have just 125 shares now, which is a significant amount for me dollar wise.  Since I’m still too inexperienced to try options,  I was considering selling all my shares around earnings (day after or Friday after?) and then buying back in about 2-3 weeks post earnings.

    Historial data tells me this has been a possible approach , but with dividends perhaps attracting new market segments, what are your thoughts on the dead in the H20 syndrome that seems to show up in August each year?

    I can leave things as I have them and wait to do any selling until 2013 or later as was my original plan, but taking out a few thousand dollars in the near future would be neat.  Fund my next iMac and iPhone and buy some more shares. 

    Hope this isn’t too rudimentary a question for all of you.  I also follow the Braeburn Group and Nansen regularly and A. Zaky when words of wisdom are leaked to the general population.

    thanx in advance.

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    “My mind hovers on hummingbird wings.”  D. Eggers

         
  • Posted: 14 July 2012 06:34 PM #28

    My price targets are not as high as Mercel’s, primarily do to my expectation of a lower TTM P/E ratio - I’m at the 14-14.5 range with close to the same earnings.

    I’ll be satisfied with $635-660 in late July early August, followed by $710-$740 in October/early November and $820-$850 in January, 2013.

    I do not think it will manifest itself as a steady rise, and some depends, of course, on when the new iPhone is released in quantity.  At this point I am confident enough in the outcome, that I will continue to stay close to all in - though I may try a trade around earnings with my Jan 2013 $550 position, but in some ways that seems rather like folly, given my expectations for their intrinsic value near expiration - which would amount to more than a 200% gain just for being patient.

    That is probably with wiser move for me.

         
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    Posted: 14 July 2012 06:39 PM #29

    roni - 14 July 2012 09:34 PM

    My price targets are not as high as Mercel’s, primarily do to my expectation of a lower TTM P/E ratio - I’m at the 14-14.5 range with close to the same earnings.

    I’ll be satisfied with $635-660 in late July early August, followed by $710-$740 in October/early November and $820-$850 in January, 2013.

    I do not think it will manifest itself as a steady rise, and some depends, of course, on when the new iPhone is released in quantity.  At this point I am confident enough in the outcome, that I will continue to stay close to all in - though I may try a trade around earnings with my Jan 2013 $550 position, but in some ways that seems rather like folly, given my expectations for their intrinsic value near expiration - which would amount to more than a 200% gain just for being patient.

    That is probably with wiser move for me.

    Ron

    I thought you had go all WM divi conservative on us?  :wink:

      cheers buddy
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 14 July 2012 06:44 PM #30

    Rosie - 14 July 2012 08:58 PM

    I am very much a newbie in all ways relating to shares and knowledge.  I am one of the folks Red described recently as having gotten in during the low 600 range before/after April earnings.  I have been following all of the intrigue and info on this board daily since then.  After I kind of freaked out and realized I bought in way too high (better late than never?)  I then watched and waited and bought some more shares in the mid 500’s-580’s. 

    I have just 125 shares now, which is a significant amount for me dollar wise.  Since I’m still too inexperienced to try options,  I was considering selling all my shares around earnings (day after or Friday after?) and then buying back in about 2-3 weeks post earnings.

    Historial data tells me this has been a possible approach , but with dividends perhaps attracting new market segments, what are your thoughts on the dead in the H20 syndrome that seems to show up in August each year?

    I can leave things as I have them and wait to do any selling until 2013 or later as was my original plan, but taking out a few thousand dollars in the near future would be neat.  Fund my next iMac and iPhone and buy some more shares. 

    Hope this isn’t too rudimentary a question for all of you.  I also follow the Braeburn Group and Nansen regularly and A. Zaky when words of wisdom are leaked to the general population.

    thanx in advance.

    Buy and holders shouldn’t trade, in my view.  Because they’re buying and holding for the long haul.  But that’s just me.  (Of course, more active traders can and do trade “just” shares.)

    Are you a buy and holder?  Self-identification is important for market participants.

    Options traders are impatient types who “don’t know any better”.  Having been one in some form for over a decade, and being a fairly active options trader today, I can confidently assert this as truth.  We play the leverage game at our own risk and must know full well what we’re getting into, or our psyche, gameplans and portfolios can be decimated in a blink of an eye. 

    Even when you think you know what you’re doing, huge portfolio swings can be a part of everyday trading life depending on how high you turn up the risk dial.

    Oh sure, you can play $500 or $1000 at a time and make your total risk a bit more like stocks, but then you’re not really playing the options game so much as playing options on the side (and starting gradually is the best way for newbies to figure out options).  And by the way, playing options in small amounts on the side can be a nice supplement for buy and holders, if they do their homework!

    [ Edited: 14 July 2012 06:56 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.