AAPL Intraday Updates- Archive

  • Posted: 30 July 2012 03:26 PM #61

    wow i love my ipad and sponge are so bearish lately

    Im still stuck with a cash account for the next month so no trading for me till then.

    Oh well even if it dips ill just hold on tight.

    [ Edited: 30 July 2012 03:51 PM by nate010203 ]      
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 04:04 PM #62

    AppleDoc - 30 July 2012 03:53 PM

    Just sold 9% of my commons @ 593.55. Cost basis $322.50.

    Before leaving my desk this morning I set a limit-sell order at 398.61 on shares bought at 326. It’s difficult to time entries and exits so I scale in and out. I also sold shares at 383 last week. Looking at past quarters, Apple tends to rise between three and five days after earnings, no matter what the scenario, then to decline over the subsequent four weeks. Patterns have a way of disappearing once noticed, however.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 04:14 PM #63

    Is the AuthenTec acquisition all about NFC and the iWallet?

    ]http://www.quora.com/Apple-Acquisitions/Why-did-Apple-buy-AuthenTec/answers/1403901]

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 04:21 PM #64

    Lots of things to look forward to - Check.
    Lots of potential catalysts - Check.
    Lots of media coverage - Check.
    Lots of rumour and speculation about iPhone - Check.

    Yep, all the ingredients are in place for a hugely volatile and easily manipulable quarter.  Framed against what even the most bullish must concede is a Q3 which raised a lot of questions. 

    We’re right now sitting at 14x ttm.  Unless we really believe that the scene has been set for PE to expand beyond that seen after Q1 and Q2 blowouts, we have more downside than upside right now.  At very best we’re middle of channel.  Be careful.

    I am short term bearish, I’ve used this run to get out of all Q3 bets, and am waiting for sub-13x to get back in.  I’m targeting a swing range of 12.5-14.5 until something persuades me otherwise.  I’m starting to think we might see a bit of scheduled selling after 16th Aug, which could be easily played by The Ebil Ones to push a dip.  Could be a nice entry point.

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 04:48 PM #65

    Android is losing ground to Apple YOY.  Just breaking here:

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/30/android_loses_ground_apples_iphone_takes_33_of_us_smartphone_market.html

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 04:49 PM #66

    Prazan - 30 July 2012 07:04 PM
    AppleDoc - 30 July 2012 03:53 PM

    Just sold 9% of my commons @ 593.55. Cost basis $322.50.

    Before leaving my desk this morning I set a limit-sell order at 398.61 on shares bought at 326. It’s difficult to time entries and exits so I scale in and out. I also sold shares at 383 last week. Looking at past quarters, Apple tends to rise between three and five days after earnings, no matter what the scenario, then to decline over the subsequent four weeks. Patterns have a way of disappearing once noticed, however.

    Next time you decide to sell at $398, be sure to PM me.  I’m a buyer.  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 04:55 PM #67

    Apple’s old ad agency recently weighed in on the new commercials and says they suck.

    I agree.  I even emailed TC.  They’re terrible. 

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/30/former-apple-ad-man-slams-genius-tv-spots-as-landing-with-a-thud/

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 05:08 PM #68

    Mercel - 30 July 2012 07:55 PM

    Apple’s old ad agency recently weighed in on the new commercials and says they suck.

    I agree.  I even emailed TC.  They’re terrible. 

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/30/former-apple-ad-man-slams-genius-tv-spots-as-landing-with-a-thud/

    I mentioned early on that they were God awful.  I can understand the message they are trying to convey but they are just terrible. I have some ideas for an ad…how do I get TC’s email or would it be the PR dept I would have to reach out to?

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  • Posted: 30 July 2012 05:13 PM #69

    Phoebear611 - 30 July 2012 08:08 PM
    Mercel - 30 July 2012 07:55 PM

    Apple’s old ad agency recently weighed in on the new commercials and says they suck.

    I agree.  I even emailed TC.  They’re terrible. 

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/30/former-apple-ad-man-slams-genius-tv-spots-as-landing-with-a-thud/

    I mentioned early on that they were God awful.  I can understand the message they are trying to convey but they are just terrible. I have some ideas for an ad…how do I get TC’s email or would it be the PR dept I would have to reach out to?

    I presume it’s .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).  As head of Apple marketing, you might also want to copy Phil Schiller at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 05:19 PM #70

    I appreciate the action oriented ads.  The ads are about Mac users who want to do better. 

    Most ads on TV are 15 seconds and so the message has to be fairly elegant:  uplifting, forward-looking. 

    Not every ad can be 1984.

    Apple wants to move beyond Mac v. PC.  John Hodgman might make a cameo.  But the unit sales are showing its a mobile world.  Its probably not the right time for iPhone v. Android.

    My take on the philosophy of the ads is:  Mac users want to accomplish a specific task and Apple will be there to help.  The ads illustrates a specific task and what the users can feel.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 05:21 PM #71

    Mav - 30 July 2012 05:09 PM

    Let me play the thought-exercise contrarian.

    The move from 618 >> 555 involved something we did NOT have this quarter.  At all.  Technically it happened before the huge push down but you know what I mean.

    I agree that AAPL is a question mark chart wise so soon after earnings.  But I’m not seeing doom.  I’m hardly piling on, mind you, I didn’t add any new positions, but I think the pullback is starting to look “weaker” the stronger AAPL rallies.

    Btw iPad, are you employing measured move as a theory?  From the recent 573ish low?

    I don’t see doom.  I see consolidation.  Continued consolidation.  Unless the SPY`s going parabolic.

    Let`s see if we`re getting a retest of today`s HOD.  That will give us a lot more info.

    IF we`re going down, THEN the measured move is 545.

    Wherever the quarterly low happens to be…I can see the subsequent upwave taking us up another 200 points from that low.

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 05:23 PM #72

    Tetrachloride - 30 July 2012 08:19 PM

    My take on the philosophy of the ads is:  Mac users want to accomplish a specific task and Apple will be there to help.  The ads illustrates a specific task and what the users can feel.

    I get the purpose of the ads, but that doesn’t excuse the poor execution.  I mean, these wouldn’t make it out of Marketing 101.

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 05:34 PM #73

    To be Captain Obvious for a moment, it’s pretty awesome to be ~$5 off our previous Monday close after that earnings report.

    Looking ahead at open interest, I see Walls of 600 Calls™ all the way until September. Obviously, if the Sept 12 date is real, all bets are off. But looking ahead to October, the top call strike is…

    710. 25K of them already.

    The problem is, there’s just a dearth of puts all the way to October. Looks like very few people bought into the “OMG Apple is doomed” meme after earnings. Nice to know people are still really bullish on Apple, but that does lead to call walls. Let’s hope the iPhone 5 buzz flattens all call walls.

    Edit: As Mercel mentioned, Najarian’s 600 call comments where what actually planted the seed for my post, but then I forgot to mention him. I wanted to expand on Najarian’s comments that the 600 walls go way past just August.

    [ Edited: 30 July 2012 05:57 PM by JDSoCal ]

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Posted: 30 July 2012 05:50 PM #74

    JDSoCal - 30 July 2012 08:34 PM

    To be Captain Obvious for a moment, it’s pretty awesome to be ~$5 off our previous Monday close after that earnings report.

    Looking ahead at open interest, I see Walls of 600 Calls™ all the way until September. Obviously, if the Sept 12 date is real, all bets are off. But looking ahead to October, the top call strike is…

    710. 25K of them already.

    The problem is, there’s just a dearth of puts all the way to October. Looks like very few people bought into the “OMG Apple is doomed” meme after earnings. Nice to know people are still really bullish on Apple, but that does lead to call walls. Let’s hope the iPhone 5 buzz flattens all call walls.

    Yep.  Jon Najarian also noticed bullish moves with the calls, predicting that by the third week of August, Apple will trade above $600.  I say sooner.

     

    With shares just south of the psychologically important $600 level, institutional investors are making big bets on Apple [AAPL 595.03   9.87 (+1.69%)    ].

    According to Fast Money trader Jon Najarian?s proprietary heat seeker, a much larger than usual number of Apple 600 calls traded.

    That?s a bullish bet that by the third week in August, Apple is trading above $600.

    ?I believe most of the action is due to increased belief that iPhone 5 and Mini iPad will be announced on the same day, September 12,? says Najarian, co-founder OptionMonster.com.

    And if you?re looking to trade the trend, Najarian says you still have time. ?I?m a buyer at current levels. I believe the stock has a lot of room to run.?

         
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    Posted: 30 July 2012 05:53 PM #75

    Mercel - 30 July 2012 07:48 PM

    Android is losing ground to Apple YOY.  Just breaking here:

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/07/30/android_loses_ground_apples_iphone_takes_33_of_us_smartphone_market.html

    This is rather dramatic news. Apple’s smartphone market share up 43% YOY, Android’s off 7%. Let’s try to focus on this instead of questionable ads.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007