AAPL June Quarter Consensus

  • Posted: 15 July 2010 01:26 AM

    I’m looking for an update on current June quarter consensus. Two sites I checked list current consensus at $3.07. That might be somewhat acceptable provided Apple didn’t release the iPad in the June quarter. With the iPad the number is laughable.

    My final estimate for the quarter is $3.71 per share. I expect to be higher than most due to my estimates on Mac and iPhone unit sales. Still, $3.07 is nowhere close to reality. Any credible sources offering a higher consensus estimate?

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2010 10:03 AM #1

    According to Fidelity First Call estimate based on 40 analysts is qtr 3.07 and FY 13.80

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2010 10:11 AM #2

    Analysts consensus is around $3.06

    Whisper number is $3.40

    Approx average consensus for AFB analysts including Turly/Zaky seems to be around $3.65 if memory serves.

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  • Posted: 15 July 2010 11:59 PM #3

    Removing the impact of the iPad puts the whispher number at around $2.90 per share, about a 45% increase in eps year-over-year, less than the 63% growth experienced in the first six months of the fiscal year.

    I’m sure both my Mac and iPhone units sales estimates in comparison with most analysts, but I see the whisper number as conservative and I expect Apple to shred it next week.

         
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    Posted: 16 July 2010 03:46 AM #4

    Whisper number of $3.40 = potential trading opportunity, and maybe one of the last chances for buy-and-hold investors to get in or accumulate at around $250 (of course, subject to a bunch of caveats).

    I wonder if the iPhone 4 brouhaha will cause analysts to set their expectations too low for Q4.

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  • Posted: 17 July 2010 03:10 PM #5

    I’ve made the following revisions to Q3 from my earlier estimate in May 2010: 

    I did not give consideration to the updated Mac units shipped earlier in Q3 10 vs. Q3 09.  My current Mac # is 3.4M, which I believe will prove conservative. 

    Also, I’m dropping my income tax to 27%.  My iPads were tweaked from 3.25 to 3.3M.

    My new EPS is $3.74, an increase of 3 cents from my May estimate.  Overall, my gross margin is 40.2% A summary follows:

         
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    Posted: 17 July 2010 03:42 PM #6

    adamthompson3232 - 17 July 2010 04:23 PM

    Here are Mac estimates per PED. On a different note, SJ specifically said yesterday that when product leaks like the Gizmodo/Grey Powell fiasco occur “customers stop buying Apple’s current products.” This is my biggest fear and I am virtually certain that iPhone took a bit hit in the quarter because of it.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/17/lets-talk-about-the-mac-for-a-change-2/?source=yahoo_quote

    Since I’m left-handed, I held off ordering an iPhone. I did, however, order an iPhone Friday after the “Surround Yourself with Turkeys Defense” event.

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  • Posted: 17 July 2010 03:54 PM #7

    Eric Landstrom - 17 July 2010 06:42 PM

    Since I’m left-handed, I held off ordering an iPhone. I did, however, order an iPhone Friday after the “Surround Yourself with Turkeys Defense” event.

    Well, when one is surrounded by turkeys (the media) one should speak their language…

    I’m a lefty too Eric, and you will love the phone. I use the bumper only occasionally.  The case is used if I’m not fitting it in my pocket, not for reception issues.

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2010 03:57 PM #8

    adamthompson3232 - 17 July 2010 04:23 PM

    Here are Mac estimates per PED.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/17/lets-talk-about-the-mac-for-a-change-2/?source=yahoo_quote

    I suspected I’d be near the top of the Mac unit sales estimates and I’m cheered that I’m not alone in expecting the recent trend in Mac unit sales growth to continue. Twelve analysts (independents and pros) expect Mac unit sales above 3.25 million units. I’m at 3.46 million units and I’m comfortable with the estimate.

    [ Edited: 17 July 2010 06:47 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 17 July 2010 04:20 PM #9

    adamthompson3232 - 17 July 2010 04:23 PM

    On a different note, SJ specifically said yesterday that when product leaks like the Gizmodo/Grey Powell fiasco occur “customers stop buying Apple’s current products.” This is my biggest fear and I am virtually certain that iPhone took a bit hit in the quarter because of it.

    In the March quarter Apple iPhone unit sales increase 131% and virtually no unit sales deterioration from the December quarter. In the December quarter iPhone unit sales grew 100% with a 19% sequential gain.

    My iPhone unit sales estimate for the June period forecasts an 80% year-over-year gain in unit sales. Most likely there was a noticeable deccleration in unit sales growth following the lost (or stolen) iPhone prototype incident. However, working in favor of unit sales growth is strong enterprise adoption of the iPhone, expansion of international points of sale, growth in the number of Apple retail stores and the all around attractiveness of the 3GS handset.

    Further, for folks filling out family plans with iPhones the top-of-the-line model may not be the primary choice due to cost and the 3G remained a satisfying option for the 2nd or 3rd iPhone in a household.

    Additionally, Apple recognizes iPhone sales when shipped, not necessarily purchased or activated by the consumer. While iPhone prototype incident may have swayed many buyers, the impact might be shared between postponed consumer sales and a frustrating impact on Apple’s ability to draw down channel supply ahead of the 4th generation iPhone’s release.

    In all I suspect the iPhone prototype incident reduced June quarter unit sales recognition globally by between 10% and 15% at the most. At 15% the revenue impact in the June quarter is about $1 billion. The question is what percent of that revenue activity was merely postponed to the July quarter.

    I don’t think sales in international markets and the resulting consumer purchasing activity are as heavily influenced by the American media’s fascination with Apple as it is in the States and competition between carriers in certain international regions for iPhone handset sales remains intense.

    [ Edited: 17 July 2010 06:49 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 17 July 2010 05:01 PM #10

    adamthompson3232 - 17 July 2010 04:23 PM

    Here are Mac estimates per PED. On a different note, SJ specifically said yesterday that when product leaks like the Gizmodo/Grey Powell fiasco occur “customers stop buying Apple’s current products.” This is my biggest fear and I am virtually certain that iPhone took a bit hit in the quarter because of it.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/17/lets-talk-about-the-mac-for-a-change-2/?source=yahoo_quote

    It serves Apple’s interest to say this, justifying its “mums-the-word” to product announcements.  And I agree Apple should be making this kind of news, not the Gizmodo’s of the world.  But the millions who buy Apple product are not anywhere near dialed into product cycles as we are to materially affect sales in one quarter vs. another.

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2010 06:46 PM #11

    adamthompson3232 - 17 July 2010 08:56 PM
    Mercel - 17 July 2010 08:01 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 17 July 2010 04:23 PM

    Here are Mac estimates per PED. On a different note, SJ specifically said yesterday that when product leaks like the Gizmodo/Grey Powell fiasco occur “customers stop buying Apple’s current products.” This is my biggest fear and I am virtually certain that iPhone took a bit hit in the quarter because of it.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/17/lets-talk-about-the-mac-for-a-change-2/?source=yahoo_quote

    It serves Apple’s interest to say this, justifying its “mums-the-word” to product announcements.  And I agree Apple should be making this kind of news, not the Gizmodo’s of the world.  But the millions who buy Apple product are not anywhere near dialed into product cycles as we are to materially affect sales in one quarter vs. another.

    Normally I would agree with you but this leak was wayyyyyy beyond merely the normal product cycle that a vast majority of consumers are naive to. This one hit John Stewart, the WSJ, Letterman, etc…And that likely had an impact, in my opinion.

    I was speaking in general product terms, but you are referring to the specific instance of Gizmodo cited above.  In the case of the iPhone 4, I agree there was some impact to sales.  We’ll learn more next Tuesday afternoon on the earnings call.  7M vs. 9M iPhones sold in Q3 2010 would swing EPS significantly.  Would the product leak cause such a variance?  I’m guessing the potential impact might be 1M units, but it’s still a WAG.

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2010 07:03 PM #12

    Mercel - 17 July 2010 09:46 PM

      I’m guessing the potential impact might be 1M units, but it’s still a WAG.

    I’d say no more than 1 million units. Look at this way: In the March quarter unit sales grew 131%. Had that sales growth momentum continued unabated in the June quarter, unit sales would have reached 12 million units. Cutting the unit growth rate to the December quarter’s growth of 100% would put unit sales at just over 10.4 million units. Take a million units off that number and we’re at 9.4 million units. I actually shaved my unit estimate for the quarter by 200k to arrive at 9.4 million units.

    Remember, SJ and Apple execs are in a different world. I don’t see his referenced comment suggesting unit sales growth stopped. Rather, I read it as a slowing of the pace of sales gains due to the iPhone prototype incident.

    It’s a big world for Apple products and not every buyer lives in the States and is glued to the tech ‘Net.

         
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    Posted: 17 July 2010 09:24 PM #13

    Mercel - 17 July 2010 06:10 PM

    I’ve made the following revisions to Q3 from my earlier estimate in May 2010: 

    I did not give consideration to the updated Mac units shipped earlier in Q3 10 vs. Q3 09.  My current Mac # is 3.4M, which I believe will prove conservative. 

    Also, I’m dropping my income tax to 27%.  My iPads were tweaked from 3.25 to 3.3M.

    My new EPS is $3.74, an increase of 3 cents from my May estimate.  Overall, my gross margin is 40.2% A summary follows:


    You had me at pie chart. LOL

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  • Posted: 17 July 2010 09:31 PM #14

    mbeauch - 18 July 2010 12:24 AM


    You had me at pie chart. LOL

    LOL  LOL

    Oh, that was good!

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2010 09:35 PM #15

    Quite likely most of those planning an iphone purchase but hesitated due to the iphone 4 leak, participated in the iphone 4 pre-order and therefore are counted in the quarter.

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