AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 22 November 2010 10:01 PM #46

    Chas, sorry for the vague remark concerning TC. Maybe this will jog your memory.

    Sep 28, 2010   291.77   291.77   275.00   286.86   36,965,800   286.86


    The news came out that TC was going to HP. An unverified flash report and the stock dropped $16. Then almost as fast the report was denied and the shares rocketed back up. Still ended the day down $5. Yeah, retail investors must have been behind it.

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    Posted: 22 November 2010 10:16 PM #47

    awcabot - 23 November 2010 12:21 AM

    From the Wall Street Journal

    NEW YORK?It doesn’t take much for investors to turn bullish on companies linked to Apple Inc.
    In recent months, traders have warmed to call options on shares in Austin, Texas-based chip maker Cirrus Logic Inc., whose products are used in Apple gadgets, including the iPod and iPad. All it took Monday was a prediction by Jefferies & Co.‘s analysts that Apple may use more of the company’s wares.
    “We have increased confidence that Cirrus Logic is designed into the upcoming CDMA iPhone, iPad 2, iPhone 5 and iPod Touch,” the Jefferies analysts wrote, also upgrading their investment rating on the stock to “buy” from “hold.” They said the company “continues to distance itself from the competition.” The stock jumped to close 15% higher.
    After the assessment, traders tore after Cirrus Logic’s options. Most appeared to shoot for sizable gains in the stock by next month or early next year.
    Investors sometimes turn to the options market to make speculative or leveraged bets, since buying a bullish option is normally much less expensive than owning the stock outright.
    In buying a call, investors have the right but not the obligation to purchase shares. They risk losing the entire cost of the option if shares don’t rise above certain levels. But in the event that the stock drops, their losses will always be limited to the cost of the options they bought.
    Activity was robust in Cirrus Logic’s December $16 and January $17 calls. The latter contracts require especially strong gains to make money.
    Priced at 95 cents, the January calls make money only if the stock can rise more than 13% above Monday levels by early next year. The shares closed $2.06 higher at $15.88 ...

    Thank you for the article.  In terms of risk/return, options are better than shares, for speculating such short-term news-driven price movement.  The only problem is the bid/ask becomes very wide and IV increased drastically, so unless you get in early, probability of making good gain is low.

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    Posted: 22 November 2010 10:19 PM #48

    Slowly opened my eyes today after seeing AAPL solidly back in 310 territory again and found my portfolio…about 2% down from where it was a month or so ago.  All things considered, that’s not bad.  I’m as well-positioned for gains as I am for really, really painful losses.  I just love the stock market!  rolleyes

    AAPL has been volatile, but weathering the downside so far.  Hoping AAPL can start marching over 320 within a couple of weeks.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 22 November 2010 10:47 PM #49

    awcabot - 23 November 2010 12:35 AM

    None, if you believe in witches. But if you are to take that passage of Deuteronomy literally…
    No divination, therefore no forecasting: no financial analysts, no AFB, no Deagol.
    No observer of times: you can have watches and clocks, just don’t look at them!
    No enchanter, witch or charmer: ask Darrin Stephens.
    No consulter with familiar spirits: no beer.
    No wizard. Ok, no wizards. How about just one Woz?
    No necromancer (black magic). Ok, that’s not good.

    I do believe that Witches BELIEVE IN WITCHES, regardless of whether or not I do….

    Agreed, toss the Technical Chartists in with the ENCHATERS and CHARMERS, they seem to have common threads, and frankly, very similar results in forcastings. One reads chicken guts laying in patterns, the other reads squiggly lines that are almost meaningless as trying to drive forwards, using the rearview mirrors. There is ALWAYS the ‘IF’ statement, they have as many “outs” as a politician promising to support you BEFORE you vote.

    Beer is allowed, I’m not a Baptist…grin. However, anything over 150proof distilled is strongly discouraged IF you want to trade and remember tomorrow what you did today.

    Woz, is a teddy bear, very harmless and “the geeks geek.”

    [ Edited: 22 November 2010 10:50 PM by TanToday ]

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 22 November 2010 10:57 PM #50

    Last week, I wrote the trading range for the next 10 days to be 305-327.

    Moving upper range up by $ 3.  New range 305 to 330 from now until Dec 11.

         
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    Posted: 22 November 2010 11:17 PM #51

    Tetrachloride - 23 November 2010 02:57 AM

    Last week, I wrote the trading range for the next 10 days to be 305-327.

    Moving upper range up by $ 3.  New range 305 to 330 from now until Dec 11.

    Have a feeling that we’ll get there as well.

    MB, forgot about the whole TC thing. Retail guys get reamed on that crap. People should go to jail for that. Funny, billions were stolen from taxpayers and untold lives were ruined and not one warm body will ever see jail time.

         
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    Posted: 22 November 2010 11:35 PM #52

    ChasMac77 - 23 November 2010 03:17 AM

    Have a feeling that we’ll get there as well.

    MB, forgot about the whole TC thing. Retail guys get reamed on that crap. People should go to jail for that. Funny, billions were stolen from taxpayers and untold lives were ruined and not one warm body will ever see jail time.

    LOL, you want jail time, send them down here, swamps everywhere. :-D

     

    Sponge, I am calling BS. You are claiming 580% return in the last year when the stock has “only” appreciated 60-70% and you only buy shares/ no options. This return would make you the greatest market timer in history. Now Chas on the other hand has been doing the opposite of what you do has done quite well. I will give you the benefit of the doubt and let you slide with a typo.  :innocent:

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    Posted: 22 November 2010 11:56 PM #53

    mbeauch - 23 November 2010 03:35 AM

    ... Sponge, I am calling BS. You are claiming 580% return in the last year when the stock has “only” appreciated 60-70% and you only buy shares/ no options. This return would make you the greatest market timer in history. Now Chas on the other hand has been doing the opposite of what you do has done quite well. I will give you the benefit of the doubt and let you slide with a typo.  :innocent:

    ($313.36/$78)*1.5=6.  Since Mar 09 is achievable.

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    Posted: 23 November 2010 12:13 AM #54

    Keep in mind Mark that I invest on margin.  So if I bought shares at 90 they would be worth 3.46 times more.  Since I can buy 3x more on margin I could if timed right be worth 10.4x more.  My timing is not good so I am only up 5.8x from my original investment.

    So if I time it the same way I could be up another 5.8x by the time we hit 600.

    This is minus interest expense.  What helps is
    that we are going up so fast so interest is a fraction of appreciation.

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2010 12:47 AM #55

    Mace - 23 November 2010 03:56 AM

    ($313.36/$78)*1.5=6.  Since Mar 09 is achievable.


    AAPL share price as of Sept 09 was $170/sh. (Fall 2009)

    DFB 09 78 +78(100%) = 156 + 78(2nd 100) = 234 + 78(3rd 100) = 312

    Am I missing something here? I know my portfolio is not up 580 % from last March and I own almost the same number of shares now as I did then. (Sold 200 shares @259 to buy some more shares/options of F during the summer, much much higher ROI) Made two nice scalps (+15) and one $5 loss in AAPL. Have Jan 11, 280 calls that are up 200%.

    My brokerage accounts must not know how to compute math, I am getting screwed. rolleyes

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    Posted: 23 November 2010 01:02 AM #56

    mbeauch - 23 November 2010 04:47 AM
    Mace - 23 November 2010 03:56 AM

    ($313.36/$78)*1.5=6.  Since Mar 09 is achievable.


    AAPL share price as of Sept 09 was $170/sh. (Fall 2009)

    DFB 09 78 +78(100%) = 156 + 78(2nd 100) = 234 + 78(3rd 100) = 312

    Am I missing something here? I know my portfolio is not up 580 % from last March and I own almost the same number of shares now as I did then. (Sold 200 shares @259 to buy some more shares/options of F during the summer, much much higher ROI) Made two nice scalps (+15) and one $5 loss in AAPL. Have Jan 11, 280 calls that are up 200%.

    My brokerage accounts must not know how to compute math, I am getting screwed. rolleyes

    Mark I am sorry.  I meant to say Fall of 2008.  aapl was trading around $100 a share at the time.

         
  • Posted: 23 November 2010 02:02 AM #57

    Tuesday

    R4       333.33
      midpoint   329.59
    R3       325.84
      midpoint   322.10
    R2       318.35
      midpoint   317.11
    R1       315.86
      midpoint   313.36
    PP       310.86
      midpoint   309.62
    S1       308.37
      midpoint   305.87
    S2       303.37
      midpoint   299.63
    S3       295.88
      midpoint   292.14
    S4       288.39

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2010 07:52 AM #58

    Thanks to Kim Jong Un having a hissy fit, the markets are going to be in the red today. Can this be attributed to the good people at GS?

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2010 09:09 AM #59

    Apple (AAPL) iPhone Demand in China Exceeding Supply Still
    Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone demand in China is still exceeding the supply
    available, according to China Unicom Ltd. (NYSE: CHU), which has put measure in
    place to ensure consumers do not buy the phone with the intent to sell it at a
    higher price.
    The Chinese wireless provider said that it has taken orders for 600,000 iPhone
    4s, but did not say how many have been delivered.
    This is a good sign for Apple’s growing popularity in the world’s largest
    cellular population, which has been reluctant in the past to accept foreign
    competitors to domestic made cell phones. Apple continues to expand in China,
    offering more products and opening additional retail locations in the nation’s
    largest cities.
    In Hong Kong, Telstra Corp. has also been unable to keep up with the demand for
    the iPhone 4 due to supply.
    News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation

         
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    Posted: 23 November 2010 10:14 AM #60

    The Q3 GDP was revised up to 2.5% growth, slightly better than forecast. HPQ posted earnings ahead of expectations and gave and optimistic outlook. This should suffice for a nice Thanksgiving rally.

    But wait, Kim Jong II is in ailing health and his son Kim Jong Un is to succeed him. The isolated state is supposedly starving to death, they need food and resources. They need to make Seoul and Washington move to their help.

    First they show off their vast facility it secretly and rapidly built to enrich uranium to a visiting American nuclear scientist earlier this month. This Tuesday they escalate by shelling Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea killing 15 soldiers and civilians. North Korea fires 100 rounds of artillery and South Korea 80 rounds with firing lasting around an hour. In March the Cheonan, a South Korean warship was sunk in this area with the loss of 46 lives in a suspected North Korean torpedo attack.

    The stage is set for a new macro event to rattle markets and shift attention from Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Political uncertainties in Ireland now add to pressure over debt costs with uncertainty over parliamentary support for necessary budget measures.

    Yesterday, the turnaround showed the seasonal bullish bias around the Thanksgiving holiday. Today it may not be enough with the tension in the Korean Peninsula adding to the down pressure. Momentum is still bearish for both the DJI and SPX. Markets are still on an oversold condition.

    This will be a bumpy ride.

    USDX at 79.185 up 0.53%. Euro at 1.3474 down -1.02%

    miniDJI at 11,062 off -103 points down -0.92%.

    S&P 500 at 1184 down -1.12%.

    NASDAQ 100 at 2,135 down -0.91%.

    AAPL $311.48 down -0.60% PM

    Now to the bell.