AAPL Q2 Estimates

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    Posted: 26 March 2012 12:20 PM #31

    Recheck, Al.  Horace’s revenue math looks fine.  It’s just the profitability metrics that look conservative.

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    Posted: 26 March 2012 05:52 PM #32

    Mav - 26 March 2012 03:20 PM

    Recheck, Al.  Horace’s revenue math looks fine.  It’s just the profitability metrics that look conservative.

    Just checked it. I had an error in one of my equations. Now it looks fine. Sorry for the hassle.

    [ Edited: 27 March 2012 04:57 AM by Big Al ]

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  • Posted: 26 March 2012 09:26 PM #33

    I’ve been thinking more about the new iPad launch and Captain Cook.

    I think there is a possibility we are going to be surprised at the iPad number when it is released later this month.

    I do not know what odds I’d place on that, but I’m looking for a big number.

         
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    Posted: 26 March 2012 09:28 PM #34

    Capt. Cook is an inapt nickname for Tim to say the least.

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  • Posted: 26 March 2012 09:41 PM #35

    Mav - 27 March 2012 12:28 AM

    Capt. Cook is an inapt nickname for Tim to say the least.

    If you don’t like it, don’t use it :wink:

         
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    Posted: 26 March 2012 11:51 PM #36

    We’re about 2 weeks away from the usual whisper number commentary.  Start reading here, Wall Street.  The majority of AFB numbers for EPS may be over $ 12.  Buy a clue.

         
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    Posted: 27 March 2012 12:14 AM #37

    Even I’m starting to reconsider my iPhone number.  This will be an exciting quarter to estimate.

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    Posted: 27 March 2012 12:28 AM #38

    Mav - 27 March 2012 03:14 AM

    Even I’m starting to reconsider my iPhone number.  This will be an exciting quarter to estimate.

    Whatcha thinking Mav?

         
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    Posted: 27 March 2012 02:46 AM #39

    I’ll get back to you within a few hours.  Dartboard research is tough stuff! LOL

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  • Posted: 27 March 2012 03:39 AM #40

    roni - 26 March 2012 12:32 PM

    Thanks for the reply, Robert.  My only thought is this:  as TTM earnings go over $40 a share and then approach and surpass $50 a share, a gradual rise in the P/E ratio will be significant smile.

    Ron:

    Trailing earnings will move well above $40 following March quarter results. The multiple is highly influenced by overall market conditions. The earnings numbers is within Apple’s influence and control. I’m not concerned about the p/e multiple. My focus remains on earnings.

         
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    Posted: 27 March 2012 03:59 AM #41

    Yep.

    Earnings Drives the Bus(tm).

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    Posted: 27 March 2012 04:09 AM #42

    Hm.

    I may have gone a bit too far, but it’s late and I have more fine-tuning to do.

    I’m presently at $44.16B revs and $12.93 EPS.

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  • Posted: 27 March 2012 07:58 AM #43

    I believe the iPad number may be more than a surprise.  The release on first week-end sales said more than 3 million in the first three days.  Apple parses their releases like no other company.  This is what they said and I take them literally.  My pre-ordered pair of iPads was shipped and billed a week before Apple’s “first three day period”.  I think there’s a high probability that these were not included in the 3 million number.

    Apple’s sales limiting number on new products has always been supply not demand and everything is telling us that supply is unlike anything we’ve seen before.  The shipping time have started to shorten a bit.  Apple Stores have product replacements very quickly, daily in most instances.  This is in spite of the fact that we have a record Number of countries.  I was in Best Buy yesterday and was told that they are selling a crazy number of iPads and they are getting them in stock like never before.

    I think the Cook has brewed up a huge iPad production surprise for the April earnings release.  I won’t be disappointed with a 12.2 million number but I won’t be surprised if it is 14 or 15 million either.  At worst this is going to be a great quarter at best it will be spectacular.  JMHO

         
  • Posted: 27 March 2012 08:04 AM #44

    ncgo4 - 27 March 2012 10:58 AM

    I believe the iPad number may be more than a surprise.  The release on first week-end sales said more than 3 million in the first three days.  Apple parses their releases like no other company.  This is what they said and I take them literally.  My pre-ordered pair of iPads was shipped and billed a week before Apple’s “first three day period”.  I think there’s a high probability that these were not included in the 3 million number.

    Apple’s sales limiting number on new products has always been supply not demand and everything is telling us that supply is unlike anything we’ve seen before.  The shipping time have started to shorten a bit.  Apple Stores have product replacements very quickly, daily in most instances.  This is in spite of the fact that we have a record Number of countries.  I was in Best Buy yesterday and was told that they are selling a crazy number of iPads and they are getting them in stock like never before.

    I think the Cook has brewed up a huge iPad production surprise for the April earnings release.  I won’t be disappointed with a 12.2 million number but I won’t be surprised if it is 14 or 15 million either.  At worst this is going to be a great quarter at best it will be spectacular.  JMHO

    Love your “Cook has brewed up” reference—it’s a keeper!

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  • Posted: 27 March 2012 10:46 AM #45

    ncgo4 - 27 March 2012 10:58 AM

    I believe the iPad number may be more than a surprise.  The release on first week-end sales said more than 3 million in the first three days.  Apple parses their releases like no other company.  This is what they said and I take them literally.  My pre-ordered pair of iPads was shipped and billed a week before Apple’s “first three day period”.  I think there’s a high probability that these were not included in the 3 million number.

    Apple’s sales limiting number on new products has always been supply not demand and everything is telling us that supply is unlike anything we’ve seen before.  The shipping time have started to shorten a bit.  Apple Stores have product replacements very quickly, daily in most instances.  This is in spite of the fact that we have a record Number of countries.  I was in Best Buy yesterday and was told that they are selling a crazy number of iPads and they are getting them in stock like never before.

    I think the Cook has brewed up a huge iPad production surprise for the April earnings release.  I won’t be disappointed with a 12.2 million number but I won’t be surprised if it is 14 or 15 million either.  At worst this is going to be a great quarter at best it will be spectacular.  JMHO

    Oh man, talk like this is going to make me carry more than I thought I would through earnings…